Turnout Trumps The Polls: A Continuing Series

Fontes: Arizona is more than just in play right now. We’re seeing all kinds of things happening on the ground.

First, Proposition 139 enshrines the right to abortion in our constitution, which is a big deal and will bring a lot of people out to vote. Second, there’s been a major shift in the vote among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a typically Republican bloc. Mesa Mayor John Giles, a prominent member of that church, and Ambassador Jeff Flake, a former Senator from Arizona, have both endorsed Vice President Harris. That’s significant because Mormons make up about six and a half percent of Arizona’s voters. If they shift even a percent or two from one side to the other, you’re going to see major changes.

Another crucial factor in Arizona that most people don’t know is that usually, the incumbent president doesn’t stand for election in our presidential preference election, which is our presidential primary in March. President Biden, who was our nominee at the time, chose to stand for election. The state Democratic party made that decision, and instead of waiting until May to start opening field offices, the Democrats began doing it last December. So we’ve had almost six months more of a ground game build-up for what is now Vice President Harris’s nomination side. This set of circumstances is really putting the Grand Canyon State in play.pic.twitter.com/zJ89z8TGlS

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 20, 2024