Wednesday, May 13, 2026

The JCPOA Did That

Per @JenniferJJacobs , according to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, he recently spoke with White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Envoy Jared Kushner on talks with Iran and said that talks are still progressing, but added that U.S. President Donald J. Trump “needs to feel confident that we've put a number of protections in place such that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
But Trump tore it up because:

A) Obama, and

B) Trump is profoundly stupid (see, e.g, his ranting 20 years later that Iran got suitcases of cash. All Iranian assets in American banks frozen by executive order, and released by same. It was frozen as punishment, and released as incentive to make the deal. It also had to be released eventually, as it wasn’t seized in accordance with legal process. It was just in limbo.).

Now Iran demands control over what were international waters because they fucking can. Even with heavy naval escorts, from us or Europe, tankers will be reluctant to present slow moving, highly flammable targets, and one burning wreck in the right place could shut down the Strait for months, anyway.

We are in a situation where the whole world needs Iran to be reasonable, but short of the world agreeing to nuke Iran ‘til it glows, there’s no reason for Iran to give up its catbird seat.* They’ve got the world by the short hairs and, until a different method of transport is available, the world will have to dance to their tune.

Trump did that. He can plan all the monuments he wants (they won’t get built). But this will be how history remembers him.

And us, for electing him and the Congress that let him do this.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Delhi, India today for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa+) foreign ministers meeting, amidst ongoing but stalled U.S. Iran negotiations. Per reports and assessments from a number of subject matter experts, Iran is expected to push for a joint statement from the Chinese-led economic bloc in support of Iranian interests.
I don’t think China will allow a very direct statement, with Trump in town (or just gone, depending on timing). But a very subtle one could be very interesting; and still not good for American interests.


*And aside from the obvious humanitarian disaster, that would ruin most of the region’s oil fields for production via fallout contamination. Not to mention the millions exposed in the region. So “humanitarian” covers a multitude of sins and nightmarish consequences.
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