Caveat Emptor 🇺🇦

excellent reading for us students attending Twitter War College https://t.co/oOdJSCzlvi

— George Conway🌻 (@gtconway3d) February 28, 2022

Let's start there: that none of us want to attend "Twitter war college." For one thing, it's not accredited! For another, you get what you pay for. That said, consider the facts on the ground as we can know them (accepting, again, "fog of war," Twitter is not journalism, blah blah blah.)

Looks like another abandoned and damaged Russian military column in the Izyumsky district, Kharkiv Oblast. Mostly fuel trucks. Russian forces appear to be doing a poor job of defending their supply lines. https://t.co/DB1vcISCM0 pic.twitter.com/hJO1wfhbnB

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 28, 2022

Russian soldiers facing protest and scorn in Berdyansk. And it's clear the same will happen in every city in Ukraine that they don't clear by force. https://t.co/L66cdKv340

— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 28, 2022

As of Monday morning in Washington, Russia has committed just under 75 percent of the combat power it staged at the Ukranian border before invading, up from about two-thirds on Sunday, the senior U.S. defense official said.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 28, 2022

Can't park there mate 🇷🇺 pic.twitter.com/ueJgyI28J8

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) February 28, 2022

I'm old enough to remember the egregious "Red Dawn," where the only thing that stopped Russian tanks was a handful of Colorado kids with bows and arrows. We all thought it was ludicrous at the time. How were we to know the Russian military really was that weak? These Urkrainians don't even have weapons!*

The Russian military has faltered early in its invasion of Ukraine, as stiff resistance threatens to turn Moscow’s hopes for a swift victory into a protracted and costly war, U.S. officials and allied military experts say https://t.co/r2JxkGHZeM

— WSJ Politics (@WSJPolitics) February 28, 2022

Abandoning, running out of fuel, minor maintenance the crew can’t fix,or desertion of soldiers. On such a wide scale, any of this speaks to the embarrassing lack of discipline in the Russian Army and the poor leadership of their officers. https://t.co/QtE2IYP7ZP

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) February 28, 2022

And yes, the Russians do appear to be getting grimly serious:

Russians could not take Kharkiv, they are leveling it now https://t.co/XocHfTmHex

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) February 28, 2022

Sitting ducks. Just imagine what would happen if the Ukrainians could borrow the USAF or the RAF or the Luftwaffe for a day https://t.co/iTnL7di9au

— George Conway🌻 (@gtconway3d) February 28, 2022

A Russian convoy north of Kyiv is now stretched out over at least 17 miles.
The line of vehicles is so extensive that it was not entirely captured in satellite imagery.
By @ckoettl https://t.co/DybHF8EVA2 pic.twitter.com/a0L0W2X17N

— Cliff Levy (@cliffordlevy) February 28, 2022

But still, the question lingers: is the Russian military bear a myth?

Instead of reversing NATO expansion, more countries are now clamoring to join. Instead of demonstrating strength, he has been frustrated so far by a second-tier military and outmaneuvered by a savvy television comic. (2)

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) February 28, 2022

Having said that, these are still early days and many invaded countries in history put up brave struggles only to eventually succumb to superior firepower. Moreover, we don't know how far the Russian capacity to absorb pain will extend or if Putin will pay a price at home. (4)

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) February 28, 2022

It's certainly going slowly:

Russia has continued a slow advance on Kyiv while taking losses in combat with the Ukrainians, the senior U.S. defense official said. On Sunday, Russia's main advance was about 30 kilometers from Kyiv city center. On Monday, it appears to be 25 kilometers away, official says.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 28, 2022

And not going as expected:

As of Monday morning in Washington, Russia has committed just under 75 percent of the combat power it staged at the Ukranian border before invading, up from about two-thirds on Sunday, the senior U.S. defense official said.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 28, 2022

And what is the endgame here? Install a puppet government? It's clear Ukraine will never accept that. Occupy Ukraine? Russia can't even blitzkrieg it; how would they occupy it?

8/8. Further anticipated is the creation of a unified Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian entity, and the rebalancing of world order in a "new epoch" of Russian domination over a humiliated and divided West.

— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) February 28, 2022

Not exactly working out, is it?

Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵 pic.twitter.com/pXpfIcq3Zs

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) February 27, 2022

This is an extremely cogent thread; although it may be complete shit. How would I know? But it seems valid and fairly carefully reasoned. And the conclusions are in the first tweet.  I think the thread presents a cogent argument.

*I'm also old enough to remember the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that caught U.S. intelligence absolutely flat-footed. No one in U.S. intelligence (no one taken seriously, anyway) saw that cataclysm coming. You'd have thought it was an earthquake, which we can't much predict, either. Except it should have been as predictable as a hurricane in the Gulf. That abject failure brought into question assessments of Russian military might, a re-assessment that was quickly abandoned because the military industrial complex demands an enemy to fear, and Middle East terrorists just weren't going to fill that bill. Once again we see the Russian military in action and, once again....nobody seems to believe what they see right before their eyes. What's that quote from Orwell about seeing what's right in front of you?