Tuesday, March 31, 2026

📦 🪨🪨

In a new post this morning on his Truth Social social media platform, President Donald J. Trump addressed the "countries that can not get jet fuel" and refused to join the strikes against Iran, such as the United Kingdom, telling them to buy oil from the United States instead and that they should "go to the strait and TAKE IT." He goes on to say, "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore."
"Brent Crude" is oil from several European fields:
As the reference standard, the Brent Crude oil marker also is known as the Brent Blend, the London Brent, and Brent petroleum. This grade of petroleum is described as light petroleum because it is of low density, and is described as sweet because it is of low sulphur content. The Brent Blend establishes the prices for approximately eighty per cent (80%) of the global trade in petroleum, especially the Atlantic-basin grades of petroleum, which, along with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of two commercial benchmarks for pricing petroleum.[4][5]
Oil is a commodity. It is priced and sold internationally. 
Trump doesn’t understand this. 

He also can’t explain why Britain should “go to the strait and TAKE IT” when the U.S. hasn’t done so. 
That seems to be a pretty good reason for us to act.
WSJ GIFT LINK: Trump might end the war without trying to forcibly open Hormuz.

It stinks, but this is likely the least bad choice in a situation of all bad options. Ending the U.S. war is a necessary condition, but possibly not a sufficient one, for Iran reopening the strait.

I get that it feels irresponsible for the U.S. to simply leave after creating a mess. It’s maddening, but might be for the best. Hear me out.

Trump created a global public bad by attacking Iran and prompting the regime to close the strait. It was a colossal mistake that has caused pain in the U.S. and beyond.

But cutting U.S. losses in a failed war makes more sense than continued fighting for a lost cause. And if the U.S. keeps fighting, no doubt Iran will continue to threaten the strait.

If the U.S. quits the war, that would increase the political pressure on Iran to reopen the strait now that hostilities are over. Iran may try to extract “tolls” and if the Tehran Tollbooth persists after the war, it will be a lasting reminder of U.S. policy failure.

But the tolls themselves aren’t that high — $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels is just a $1/barrel surcharge, amounting to a 1% tax. Not great, but better than what oil prices are doing now.

It would also incentivize Iran to keep traffic moving securely through Hormuz by monetizing safe transit. Yes I know it rewards bad behavior and morally it stinks for an odious regime to profit, but that’s the reality that Trump’s blunderous war has bestowed on us all.

There’s a reason most of us don’t worry about Egypt (today) closing Suez or Panama closing its canal — the profit motive is powerful.

Overall if Trump ends the war (which he should) with the Tollbooth intact, we are all worse off than we were on February 27, but better off than where we are now, and better than where we could be if the war stretches on for months or years.

I know it’s not a satisfying ending but it’s pragmatic and we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds.

There is one problem, though: Israel. Trump will almost certainly need to restrain Israel from continuing its war for Iran to reopen the strait. It should be a no-brainer: Israel is the junior partner and Trump should have the leverage to make them stop, given how much military aid the U.S. gives to Israel.

But it’s not clear Trump will use it.
It is of a piece with Trump yelling at Starmer, though.
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