Thursday, March 26, 2026

For The Record

U.S. President Donald J. Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the Iran War should his latest push for diplomacy fail, with Pentagon officials preparing for the next phase of war by drawing up scenarios for deploying troops to seize various targets within Iran, more than half a dozen people familiar with the discussions told CNN.

Officials have developed options for capturing Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, or authorizing a bombing raid aimed at effectively wiping out all oil infrastructure on the island in the Persian Gulf. And the administration has examined the potential for taking over other strategically placed islands near Iran that might weaken the regime’s ability to threaten tankers trying to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.
Either scenario probably renders the facilities unusable. Which is not going to stabilize the market; or lower the price. And weakening Iran’s ability to threaten tankers is not the same thing as eliminating the ability. Unless you do the latter, or otherwise convince Iran to back off, the strait doesn’t open. Worst case scenario, Iran blows up a tanker in the narrowest, shallowest part of the Strait.*

And blocks traffic for a long time.

There is no military scenario where this ends well, quickly, and the world resets to status quo. 

As Anthony Blinken put it:
(4/10) What would have happened if President Trump had just left the JCPOA in place? When the JCPOA expired, it could be extended or renegotiated, as with most arms control agreements. If Iran refused, the U.S. would still retain the military option, with a lot more information about Iran’s program, because of the most intrusive inspections ever.
5h (5/10) Now, we have to be able to hold multiple ideas in our heads at the same time. Once our armed forces are engaged in conflict we should all be pulling for their safety and success. Is it a good thing the Ayatollah who inflicted so much suffering on the Iranian people (and wrought so much violence around the world, including on Americans) is gone, Iran’s missile arsenal is diminished, and its nuclear program “re-obliterated” (since apparently it wasn’t “obliterated” in June)? Yes. But to what ends, at what cost, and for how long?
(8/10) The failure to anticipate and prepare for Iran weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz puts us literally at the bottom of the barrel. Markets (oil, LNG, stocks, bonds, fertilizer, helium) and munitions (offensive and defensive) will dictate when President Trump feels compelled to declare victory and walk away, but with Iran controlling the Strait. Maybe a negotiation can fix that, but with what concessions to Iran? Or we can double down, at huge risk.
(9/10) Meanwhile, 13 American servicemembers have lost their lives and hundreds more have been wounded. The Iranian people are still under the fist of a highly repressive regime. Iran and Russia are getting an oil bonanza. America is more isolated than ever from our closest allies and partners. And billions more U.S. taxpayer dollars are being spent on another war in the Middle East (with an additional $200 billion requested from the Pentagon to fund this war). Not to mention the failure to make the case to the American people for why this was necessary, in their interest, or worth risking American lives for.

Trump truly is a toddler with a shotgun. And we are all stuck in the room with him.  By “all,” I mean all the world. And I can never forget we, the electorate, put him, and us, there.

The Iranians have actually shown restraint in their targeting. If we take Kharg island and thereby deny Iranian access to oil revenues, then they have the incentive to attack all the oil infrastructure in the gulf. We can't protect our own bases, let alone all the oil and gas storage, pumping and loading facilities across a wide swath of the Middle East. Throw in sinking a half dozen tankers to emphasize their point and oil prices will soar. They won't come down anytime soon given that restoration will only begin after hostilities cease, and repairs could take years.
Iran attacking other oilfields and facilities is perfectly predictable. I wonder if that turns us into a pariah state?
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