Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Iowan Post-Partum Analysis (Sort Of)

The most frequent answers were about the political system itself. More respondents indicated that they would be more likely to participate if their voice mattered more or if the system was more trustworthy. The difference between these two responses is that indicating that your voice doesn’t matter is a signal that the outcome of the race is not at all competitive. In contrast, the high number saying that the system is not trustworthy suggests that around a third of potential caucus goers think that this Republican Party-controlled process in a Republican control state is corrupt. About a quarter of respondents indicated that they would be more likely to participate if there were better candidates.
So 40% of respondents think the race is not competitive enough, which sounds about right in a two-party system where the voting majority tends to follow the herd, and the herd is no longer led by party bosses, but by polls.

Polls tell us who the winners are, and we accept the words of these entrail readers so implicitly that early predictions of victory are blamed for low returns. Bush v Gore became a Supreme Court case in part because polls said Bush had won; and then returns said Gore had won, and pretty soon nobody was sure about anything (if you can’t trust predictions of the future, what can you trust? And where the hell is my flying car!?! And the future that held nothing but smiling Don Drapers (every man his idol of women), and every white wife happy with her man! And all while people!! Sorry, I got carried away with my meme.), and we found ourselves in Florida staring at hanging chads. Which, fortunately, was no longer a popular name by then, or things WOULD have been awkward!

But I digress…

We live by polls whether we like it or not, because the press insists on reporting whatever a poll says, and because Donald Trump has made it an article of MAGA faith that polls are hughways to White Man’s Supreme future, and the only thing keeping us here in the non-whites only present is rigged elections. When, of course, it’s only the elections that count, not the polls.

But tell that to AP in Iowa last night. The DeSantis campaign actually has a point, though many treated it as a whiny one (“The polls must be defended!”).

Trump consistently insists the polls show him winning all electoral contests (and if they don’t, he invents polls that do), and when that prediction proves false he shouts “RIGGED!” And MAGA nods along.

Yet he proclaimed he was 60 points ahead of Nikki Haley in Iowa, and ended only 33 points ahead. Rigged? Nah! A win is a win, even if it’s barely a majority of the diehard Ms who turned out in record cold temperatures to caucus (and honestly, who caucuses except diehards?).

Point no. 2: a large number of the respondents think the process corrupt, even though it’s a GOP primary in a GOP dominated state. But the Trump-Bannon line is that the Deep State is everywhere! So beware!

Message received.

Which might explain turnout better than the weather did:
Was it the weather? Or was enthusiasm not high? If 40% think the system is corrupt, did they vote by staying home? Does it matter? Maybe it does. There’s a lot of early hand-wringing about Democratic enthusiasm for Biden, contrasted with MAGA enthusiasm for Trump. But if that same enthusiasm is matched by conviction that the system is corrupt and RIGGED!…? Well, except that a large number of Haley supporters said they’d vote for Biden over Trump. So maybe MAGA doesn’t control 95% of the party? Enough, maybe?
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1 comment:

  1. The Thought Criminal11:20 AM

    Any state that keeps a caucus after the last two rounds should be reduced to territorial status.

    ReplyDelete

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