Polls Serve The Narrative

Here's the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris is up 47% to 44%.
(Not a typo. Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.)

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 2, 2024

The Selzer poll is clearly an outlier & I’d be absolutely floored if Iowa was anything closer than Trump +3 (feel free to bookmark, I hope I’m wrong!)

And of course the Selzer poll doesn’t neatly translate regionally or nationally

But god what rough timing to release this piece pic.twitter.com/7XRPT6coUb

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 3, 2024

category 5 cope storm pic.twitter.com/9c5ajlOiZg

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 3, 2024

(Nate Silver hasn’t called the electoral outcome since 2012. Yet he’s been dining out on 2012 for 12 years.)

exactly https://t.co/TjQkTbuCb1

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 3, 2024

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

— emptywheel (blue algae) (@emptywheel) November 2, 2024