Friday, May 28, 2021

Who Wants Ice Cream? 🍦

But the pundits all live in the Beltway, or at least the BosWash, and regard the appearance of bi-partisanship as the highest good and the holy grail of Washington governance, because it is as rarely seen as the snark (hunting of). And the commission/investigation/what have you would never get any respect because the sniping about it being "partisan" would dominate the discussions/news reporting.

So we're stuck chasing chimeras and unicorns, forever.
See?  Now if there is a proper investigation at the Congressional level, it won't be one "we" agreed on, so what's the point?  The American Experiment is clearly over.  Right?  I mean, clearly. It was so fragile and harum-sacrum, all it took was one filibuster to do it in.

Nothing left to do now but get ice cream. Who wants ice cream? 

"Run In Circles, Scream And Shout!"

Problem. But no solution.

Texas will hold a special session (or two) this summer to redistrict.  Thanks to CJ Roberts, Texas can do this with impunity. O blessed year of Jubilee!  But the GOP controls the Texas House and Senate.  What, then, are the Democrats and Joe Biden to do about redistricting in Texas?  The only weapon they have is to run the clock out every 30 days (each session can last no longer than that).  Wendy Davis famously did that during one regular session; made national news for it.  The governor called a special session and the bill she  opposed passed handily.

So what do we do?  Count on the courts to redraw maps again?  Run in circles, scream and shout?  Abandon all hope, ye who enter here, and discourage Democratic voters with your pessimism?

If you don't have a solution, don't harangue us about how awful the problems are.

“This Guy Is A Disaster”

The GOP doesn't like Trump returning to rallies:

The problem: Since when has Trump ever stuck to policy? Most Republicans are expecting a rerun of the oldies: false claims of voter fraud, witch hunts and the like — only to be hounded by reporters for their comment on the outrage of the moment.

I, not surprisingly really, find myself agreeing with Adam Kinzinger:

“I do think that’s going to be fatiguing with people, and eventually folks besides the most hardcore are going to say, ‘Okay, it’s time to move on,’” he said. “My hope is that actually in those rallies, people realize this is starting to get nuts.”

Politico says:  "Yeah, well, maybe."

Yet for close to six years, Trump’s naysayers have predicted the GOP would finally say “enough already, this is nuts,” and move on. And he’s done nothing but prove them wrong. 

But 4 of those 6 years Trump was POTUS.  2 of those 6 years he was the newest freak in the national sideshow.  Four years exposure as the resident of the White House was enough for 81 million people, and 2/3rds of America has had enough of him.   Even Trump's rallies were beginning to fizzle by the fourth year (anybody else remeber the debacle that cost Trump's campaign chairman his job, and ended with him being hauled off by the cops?).

Trump will return to the stage with NEWT GINGRICH!  Not so much a blast from the past as another old white guy nobody wants to hear from.  Gingrich is also not a familiar figure to anybody under the age of 35 (probably under 40, to be honest*).  Trump's rallies are probably going to prove he's only popular with the shrinking cohort who was following him from city to city like the old Deadheads.  And even then I think the entertainment value is going to fall off sharply.  Trump is a one-trick pony, and that trick is about played out.

Besides, his campaign stiffed a lot of cities for those rallies; and he no longer has the office of the President behind him to coerce the arenas.  He's gonna have to pony up for that shit and charge admission.  And I think his sell-by date has just about passed.

I mean, where’s the upside?

Republicans are fighting the last election, and nobody’s with them.

Highground President and CEO Chuck Coughlin offered his analysis of the data.

Republicans are on an island when it comes to this audit," Coughlin explained. "Dwelling on the past is a dangerous proposition for the GOP's electoral future," Coughlin said. "Continued focus on this audit or the fraud narrative will only serve to undermine their electoral success in 2022."

"While it is to be expected that they would receive significant opposition from Democrats, this audit makes them face headwinds among independent and unaffiliated voters as well. As we have said before, 'never run the last election, run the election you are in now.' This issue is an electoral cul-de-sac that spells trouble for Republicans in 2022,” he argued.

And what are Trump’s upcoming rallies going to be about?  Not the bright, shiny future….

*In case you're wondering, that would be 50% of the population.  The two largest age groups in raw numbers are 26-29 and 55-59.  By 2024 both about half of members of both groups will move up a category.  The bulge in the snake may well carry over into the 30-34 group, but it may not move up as much in the 60-64 group, because despite the fact affluent whites are living longer, over all life expectancy in the U.S. has actually declined slightly.  So the "top end" where voters traditionally congregate may not swing the pendulum dominated by those under 40.

Army Of The Dead

It's kinda cute the way they think anybody who would take this nonsense seriously actually cares about "facts."

If all this moaning and gnashing of teeth and stupid "audits" has any real effect IRL, it will be to dissuade voters for Trump and the GOP from bothering to vote.

So long as the rest of us carry on.  


"Meanwhile, Republicans have moved from the 'big lie' that the election was stolen to a big voter-suppression crusade to big and farcical recounts," she noted. "So how is all that working out for Republicans? Not all that well. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, Democrats lead Republicans in the 2022 generic congressional poll by a healthy 9 points. In the most recent Morning Consult-Politico poll, Republicans in Congress have a net favorability rating of -19 (35 percent favorable vs. 54 percent unfavorable); Democrats have a +2 net favorability (47 percent favorable vs. 45 percent unfavorable). Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's poll average gives Biden a +14 net approval."

"Republicans choose to seek solace in voter suppression schemes, which will not necessarily benefit them. (As the Associated Press reported, these legislative gambits might deter rural and elderly voters, part of the GOP's base, from voting while they enrage and mobilize the Democratic base,)" she explained.

In conclusion:

"Most of all, elected Republicans, like their supporters, increasingly reside in a right-wing media bubble, which helps confirm their beliefs that the country is outraged by a socialist agenda and in a frenzy about cultural and racial memes. Living in a right-wing world of make-believe might be emotionally gratifying, but it does not prepare the party to win elections in the real world," Rubin noted. "Republicans' rhetoric might be odious, their assault on democracy irresponsible and their political thinking delusional. But Republicans' approach might also be entirely counterproductive. So far, the poll data shows they are doing a bang-up job of alienating everyone but MAGA cultists. That's no way to win elections."

Basically, what Trump won't do to himself and the GOP, the GOP is doing.

That army of dead voters, are Trump voters.  And everybody knows dead people don't vote. 

Well, Unless Democrats Are For It...

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Why Is Biden Popular?

'Tis a mystery....

Honest (Not Just Smart-Ass) Question

Is he saying freedom "reigns," or that freedom should have "reins"?

I'm actually offering Kemp an out here, because he completely trashes the cliche, in a wholly Trump-esque manner (which must please the GOP "base"), but I think he's talking about "freedom reins."

Which is a whole 'nother kettle of fish entirely.  And really, a more interesting discussion than just pointing and laughing at the public figure who can't even spit out the pre-digested pap every schoolchild learns by heart.

We Need To Regulate Columnists*

Regulation for thee, but not for me.

*No, we can’t; but sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

Future’s So Bright

But none of the people paying attention to that will be on the jury (should it come to that). A criminal case is not something Trump can whine his way out of. That, and 2024 is an age away, in political terms. And nothing is going to stand still in the meantime. Whether she has or not, someone will by 2024. Once Sarah Palin wasn’t running for office (or holding one) she sank beneath your notice like a stone.

Well, That Explains A Lot

Been hearing about the dangers of "socialism" all my life. I had no idea the fear-mongering on it went back to the 19th century.

Thinking back on it, I shoulda known.

About That "Trump Running For POTUS From Prison/A Courtroom"

I'll just leave that right there. Although, while we're on the subject of Trump: And. to be perfectly clear: Four years, as I say, is a long time. A lot can happen.

In A Perfect World....

Sure. But we live in this world: So the merest hint of credence given to "It Came From The Laboratory!" and anti-Asian sentiment/assaults on people who "look" Asian (let's face it, it's what the bigots and the stupid go on) would take off like a bottle rocket.  Not to mention still more screaming about the "Communist Party of China," and all kinds of demands we "do something" to them.  I mean, do you watch the White House daily briefings? And that's the third day in a row for Doocy. He's like the old inflated clown with a weighted base: knock him over, he bounces back up again.  So sure, let's forget facts and behave like covid-19 escaped from a lab in China.

What could go wrong?*

*Yes, I understand the argument from a scientific/public health/security of viruses point of view.  I don't have to read the article to imagine the proposition.  But given how poorly public health issues are faring in the country right now, who doesn't see this proposal as throwing a lit match into the gasoline?
Because, yeah, this will help a lot.

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Inquiring Minds Want To Know!

Well, maybe.... In matters of differences of opinion between non-lawyers and lawyers on legal matters, my money is on the lawyers' opinions. That said, no lawyer worth her/his salt will assure you Trump is going to jail. And issue that raises another interesting question: On the upside, we might finally get a President impeached and removed from office. Or we'd get the Mother of All Constitutional Crises because the Senate refuses to convict, thumbing their nose at the entire criminal justice system. Of course, this nightmare scenario assumes Trump could run a political campaign while either appearing in a criminal trial (he'd have to attend), or from a prison cell.

Keep reminding yourself 4 years is a long time off, and Trump really doesn't have the political chops for it.  He managed to lose as the incumbent, when incumbents, statistically, are shoo-ins for re-election.  Yeah, voters in House districts sometimes re-elect the crook, (which illustrates the power of incumbency), but how often does that happen for a Senator, on a statewide basis?  And nationwide?

I don't think that many people will stay home if Trump is on the ticket again.  And by "people" I don't mean Trump supporters.  That turnout for Biden (Joe Biden!) is consistently overlooked.  How many of those people just showed up to make sure the "other guy" didn't win again?

You discount that effort at your prediction's peril.

Do We Decry Any Use Of the "N word"?

Or not?

It's not a simple calculus.  But any creeping retun of very public racism:
Should be exposed and condemned. Of course, it matters who is doing the condemning, and how: Just as there is a difference between a cat peeing on the bed, and a cat shredding the curtains and the furniture in the house, while using the bedding as a scratching post and the mattress as a litter box.

Because I can tell you from experience that once the cat pees outside the litter box, they will continue to pee in that spot, or find other spots, to pee; all outside the litter box.  Ignoring the cat while they do this, makes no difference to the cat; and alters not one jot its behavior.

Condemnation from GOP House leaders is pretty useless.  Censure of Greene would be more effective.  Will the House GOP, en masse, refuse to censure Greene's beyond the pale remarks?  Censure is also probably the most serious punishment Greene would receive.  I know some people call for expulsion, but in the history of the House, only five members have ever been expelled.   Three because they supported the Confederate rebellion in 1861 and 1862, and two because they were convicted of bribery and/or other crimes.  So either you support treason, or you are convicted of a "high crime." Convicted, as in, you'll be repesenting your constituents from a jail cell.  Less than that, the House has not seen fit to remove you.

The last Senators removed from the Senate were all due to the Confederate rebellion.  Even Tailgunner Joe was only censured; but it was enough to end his political career.  I imagine MTG would wear her censure as a badge of honor and fundraise some more off of it.  Maybe the House could consider not seating her if she's re-elected.

I'm not sure what else they could do, or would be willing to do.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Capitol:
This is what Sen. Cotton tweeted: And somehow "Communist Party of China" and "CCP" are the approved ways of referencing China? Are all the voters in the GOP over the age of 70?  And scared of black people?

TBH

These are all three very bad ideas.

The problem with swatting at transgender students is obvious, first from a moral/ethical point of view:
There's also the aspect of trying to fix a problem that doesn't exist. I read that Alabama wants (or has passed?) such a law. There is one transgender student in all of Alabama that law would protect the rest of Alabama from. Texas has a larger population than Alabama, so probably a larger number of transgender students. But do we need a law to protect the rest of us from their attempts to be regular schoolchildren?

But the clinker in there is not obvious: taxpayer funded lobbyists.  This is not a noble effort to protect taxpayers from funding lavish dinners and more lavish gifts on legislators via lobbyists.  It's the Lege's effort to get cities and counties and school districts (all independent government entities, to one degree or another) to leave them alone so they can do as they like.

School districts large enough to afford lobbyists hire them to report on what's going on in Austin during the session, and to advocate for their points of view, or just let them know when and where they need to send people (usually school superintendents, who are technically using tax money to advocate for public education) to hearings to make their voices heard.  Is that for, or against, the interests of the people?  You may find a particular issue to be not to your liking:  you may think, for example, no child should wear a mask at school, and schools should be "open" and campuses full of people; or you may think no one should be on the campus and those who are should be wearing hazmat suits.  Opinions differ, and if you think I'm exaggerating for effect; I'm not.  Now, whose interest in this fight is the "people's" interest?  And if the schools are lobbying for more equitable funding via state revenues, is that in the people's interests, or not?  Most people in Texas have no idea how school funding is accomplished, and most of the ideas they do have are wrong.  Do they pay attention to school funding bills in Austin every two years?  Somebody has to, and the schools have found, for their and the sake of the children, that they have to do it.  Are they all that effective?  No, actually.  Should they not be allowed to try?  Absolutely, says I.

Then again, I'm a Texas Democrat, and it was the Democrats in the House who bottled up those three bills until it was too late for the House to consider them (the calendar in a 5 month session once every two years pretty much runs the session, donchaknow?).

Will this come back up in a special session?  Don't hold your breath:
Governors don't like special sessions because they have to call them, and voters know special sessions cost more money.  Governors don't like to be the individual costing the taxpayers more money.  There will be a special session for redistricting because the census numbers won't be official soon enough; that will be forgiveable.  But there won't be time in that session to tack on these three bills, and calling a second special session just for those bills, is probably not going to happen.  One special session every two years is allowable.  More than that, is practically heretical.  And besides, the Lege didn't really do anything about the state's electric grid, and we'll be reminded of that in a few months when brownouts and rolling blackouts return.  Nobody'll freeze to death, but Texans hate losing their A/C even more than they hate losing their heat in winter.

If any special session could be justified, aside from redistricting (which we will grudgingly accept as the cost of having a government), it would be to fix, once and for all, the problem of electricity in Texas.  Needless to say, nobody's holding their breath waiting for that one.

The Two Faces Of The Modern GOP

Proving a negative is bad:

"This is a vendetta," he insisted. "It should be illegal if it isn't illegal for a prosecutor to conduct a witch hunt investigation trying to find crime on you. Pick somebody. Steve Bannon, Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump. I'm going to look at his whole life and see if I can pin a crime on him. That's what they're doing to Donald Trump."

"We investigate crimes that lead to people. We don't just investigate people," the former mayor continued. "That happens in a dictatorship. And don't tell me we're not headed in that direction. We're headed in the direction of a dictatorship."

 

Proving a negative is good:

During the interview, Fann asked Lah -- who was supposed to be the person asking questions -- if she could prove that no dead people voted for President Joe Biden in Arizona and that Biden supporters didn't fill out ballots on behalf of other people.

"I'm saying what the data shows us, there was no widespread fraud," Lah replied.

"I didn't say there was fraud!" Fann replied, despite the fact that she implied Biden fraudulently won in her state.
 
Lah then listed off all of the concerns Fann raised and informed her that "these things are all fraud."

"Well, I asked you a question," Fann said. "Can you tell me that, in all the states, no ballots from people that are already deceased were not filled out and sent in?"

"I can tell you that what the data has shown is, overwhelmingly, this was the most secure election," Lah replied.

Later in the interview, Fann tried to slap away complaints that the election audit was not transparent by noting it was being broadcast on the Trump-loving One America News network.

Lah pointed out that OAN controlled all the cameras inside the audit and could edit out footage that the auditors don't want people to see.

"Are you saying OAN is not a credible news source?!" Fann asked incredulously.

And yes, I'd have started a GoFundMe account if Lah had responded:  "Yes, absolutely.  That's exactly what I'm saying!"

And in the Still Doesn't Know How Any of This Works category, taking home the prize for nuttiest GOP hanger-on:
Lindell once again predicted that the Supreme Court will rule 9-0 within the next six weeks to "pull this election down." "You're going to have Brian Kemp and Doug Ducey front and center," he promised. "Tell us why you did this, Doug and Brian. And I can't wait for that day when MSNBC goes, you know what? We said it was just a conspiracy but it looks like it's all true. China attacked our country through the [voting] machines... They're all going to have to answer."


No News Is Purely Good

I wish I could simply agree. However, my sentiments lie elsewhere: I'm not sure we were every any better at this, but we're considerably worse at it now. Maybe the brief, shining moment in the '60's when we actually seemed rational (counter-point: "The Best and The Brightest") was just an aberration in our national history. More and more, I think it was.

Then again, that "rationality" was mostly the hegemony of WASP's, so there's that.

Voting Integrity Is Much Lower…

...in Democratic areas. I mean, look who they vote for! OTOH, this is what we get anyway: Because, you know, government is the problem. Which is doing its part to protect the majority from the minority. And behold the power of the people and the governor: And what this state needs is more reasons to vote often, if not early: If only there were a 2nd Amendment for voting!

MTG: A Saga In Tweets

Wonder which part made her think she should retract it?  I mean, it's not like she ever knows what she's talking about: Or that she isn't an international embarassment: Still, she speaks for "average Americans," right?

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Theseus' Ship v. The Department of Justice

So everybody on Twitter is suddenly a legal expert (again) and people who wish they were lawyers (or wish they were legal scholars, if they are lawyers) are buzzing about pontificating on what's going on in court with the DOJ and the Mueller report. And it's producing, not light, but mud: Shaub's argument is with what DOJ is trying to prevent.  He has a lot of problems with you people ("you people" being the DOJ), but that's an argument I don't think we can really have on Twitter, because the legal issues are too complex, and Shaub mostly just quotes Jackson's order and adds more heat than light.  The DOJ not agreeing with the Judge does not mean the DOJ is wrong or even pernicious.  That's part of the point of emptywheel's tweet, because people are jumping to all kinds of conclusions that are entirely unwarranted.
The argument before the court is about releasing the entirety of a memorandum opinion.  What the DOJ is appealing is that ruling.  What they are not challenging is the release of portions of that opinion which are discussed in Judge Jackson's memorandum opinion (that's what I'm getting from reading these tweets, mind.).  So, in part, this is not a major revelation; but also in part, this is not a major obstruction of the "right to know."  So I'm a bit confused as to what Walter Shaub's problem is, especially the parts where the DOJ has to abandon arguments previously made, and even admit it previously (as an institution, mind) made some bald-faced misrepresentations.  I do seem to remember the DOJ had this problem previously under Trump, when several DOJ attorneys had to withdraw from a case where they were being pressured to misrepresent the law and the facts to the court. (Found it!  The Census cases in 2019, on the matter of putting a citizenship question in.) So we've been down this road once or twice before, and the DOJ now is between Scylla and Charybdis:  on one hand trying to clean up the mess Barr made, on the other trying to preserve the institution of the DOJ.  Which, yes, raises the institutional problem of the "DOJ," which raises a sorta question of identity metaphysics*.

You know the stuff:  if you preserve Theseus' ship as a memorial by repairing and replacing parts over a long history, eventually you've replaced every part of it, and the question arises:  is it still Theseus' ship? (although more accurately the question is "What does it mean to call it "Theseus's ship"?)  So if you replace the AG with a new AG, and new assistant AG's (or deputies, or whatever they call the people right below the AG), have you replaced the DOJ?

Well, obviously not.  The idea of the DOJ is that it is not changed by a change in leadership; not fundamentally changed, I mean.  The ship is still a ship, even if no part of it ever felt the tread of Theseus, anymore.  And since "Theseus' ship" is actually the name of a memorial, is the memorial no longer a memorial if it is no longer in every part the original ship? (yeah, the "paradox" is based on a category error).  So the DOJ is still the DOJ, even if Bill Barr ran it up on the rocks and left it there during the hurricane as he helicoptered away.  He was a lousy captain, but does that give us salvage rights to the ship, including the right of plunder?

Some says yes, and some says absolutely!
There you go: helpful advice from a random Twitter user who has no connection to the DOJ whatsoever (or probably any experience in government service, any training in law, etc., etc., etc.).  The people unburdened with knowledge always have the best understanding of the solution to the problem.

So what is the DOJ up to?  I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the DOJ is doing what it thinks is best for the continuing function of the DOJ. I'm also gonna say this is not a position they are happy with, and that there are institutional reasons for the position they have taken which have nothing to do with covering Bill Barr's considerably large exposure.  Then again I've read apologias both considerably legally and institutionally arcane, as well as those very politically arcane.  And I've decided those people have no more idea than I do what the justification for DOJ's posture on this is, except it's clearly not so simple as all the knee-jerk reactions would have you believe.

And that's the part I want to pay attention to:  ignore the screeching from the peanut gallery, and pay attention to what DOJ is actually saying, viz: Ah, you see? That's a different kettle of fish entirely. Now we may be getting somewhere! So, the stated DOJ posture (now; yes, elections and changes of AG do have consequences; everybody take a deep breath, this isn't a TV show where the problems are raised and solved in 45 minutes, with commercials) is that Mueller screwed the pooch and opened a loophole Barr could drive a Mack truck through, and Barr happily took that option.  Here, let me emphasize it for you:  "In doing so, Barr rejected Mueller’s “fairness” theory/argument. What we see from Garland’s DOJ’s filing is that they reject it, too." 

I'm still not sure where that put's Garland's DOJ on the prosecution of Trump, or on any of the legal issues (which I'm also not clear about) raised by this action by the DOJ.  I think this is a legal argument they are obliged to pursue. Some sources indicate there is a question of a particular type of privilege involved, one allowing confidential consideration of legal theories, strategies, and postures to be conducted by the DOJ, not just by any Administration in charge of the DOJ at any moment.  Part of the question of identity metaphysics here is, who's DOJ is it?  Theseus' ship was his while he captained it, but once he died it became a memorial.  The memorial is "Theseu's ship," but is that label a designation, or a recognition of the rightful owner?  If the former, does the possessive not make it still a posession of the person named?  It is not longer Barr's DOJ; but it is still the DOJ.

The question of Mueller's actions, and the actions of Barr in response to Mueller, are more particular and, I dare say, more pertinent.  Screaming and yelling about what you think the DOJ is doing is one thing:  it generally makes you feel important if you scream the loudest and everyone listens to your argument (or screaming, more accurately).  But actually paying attention to what the DOJ is arguing, and what the judge is arguing, is a great deal more helpful.**  



*No, I'm still not convinced that's a "thing," but it's a handy bag to put some concepts into, so we'll use it here regardless.

**And there is some interesting speculation on whether this position is going to put pressure on Garland to prosecute Trump for obstruction of justice.  Again, a much more interesting question than why the DOJ is arguing with the trial judge about the release of certain documents.