Inquiring Minds Want To Know!

The path from where prosecutors are now to the executive golf carts at Mar-a-Lago is long and twisted, and overgrown with trickster bookkeeping, and laden with great herds of scapegoats. https://t.co/KvMAqp2rDj

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) May 26, 2021

Well, maybe....

It's important to remember that many people who were much smarter, much more disciplined, much less sociopathic, and who had much better lawyers than the former guy have gone to prison for financial crimes.

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) May 26, 2021

In matters of differences of opinion between non-lawyers and lawyers on legal matters, my money is on the lawyers' opinions. That said, no lawyer worth her/his salt will assure you Trump is going to jail. And issue that raises another interesting question:

Don't laugh. The former guy absolutely would do it. He could even get the nomination. And I'd go farther than this article: A decent constitutional argument could be made that, were he elected, they'd have to spring him so he could serve—which increases the likelihood he'll run. https://t.co/JVmCyQ59EJ

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) May 26, 2021

On the upside, we might finally get a President impeached and removed from office. Or we'd get the Mother of All Constitutional Crises because the Senate refuses to convict, thumbing their nose at the entire criminal justice system. Of course, this nightmare scenario assumes Trump could run a political campaign while either appearing in a criminal trial (he'd have to attend), or from a prison cell.

Keep reminding yourself 4 years is a long time off, and Trump really doesn't have the political chops for it.  He managed to lose as the incumbent, when incumbents, statistically, are shoo-ins for re-election.  Yeah, voters in House districts sometimes re-elect the crook, (which illustrates the power of incumbency), but how often does that happen for a Senator, on a statewide basis?  And nationwide?

I don't think that many people will stay home if Trump is on the ticket again.  And by "people" I don't mean Trump supporters.  That turnout for Biden (Joe Biden!) is consistently overlooked.  How many of those people just showed up to make sure the "other guy" didn't win again?

You discount that effort at your prediction's peril.