Don’t Put Too Many Eggs In That Basket

Caputo:

"What stood out for me is the guy didn't really sleep," Caputo said. "The president hadn't slept much, I think maybe two hours [since] he had flown back from Europe. But his general attitude was very positive. Despite all of the negative commentary and pushback over the deal, the president seems pretty relieved because he has an exit here, and he's looking at two things. He's looking at the stock market, and he's looking at the price of oil, and the price of oil is down."

Caputo highlighted the quote that stood out the most to him about the president's state of mind.

"At one point in the interview, he said it at a few points in the interview, he said, 'It's a gusher,' as if he literally struck oil through this deal because of the price lowering," Caputo said, "and that really impressed me because it just shows what Trump is really focused on."

About that:

Oil prices began to climb once again in early Asian trade on Friday due to uncertainty over the outcome of peace talks between the United States and Iran after Switzerland confirmed the talks had been postponed.

At the time of writing, Brent crude had climbed back above $80 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate had risen to $76.28.

Oil prices on this index are futures; expectations, in other words. If oil doesn’t show up in refineries soon, and in substantial quantities, the futures price won’t matter. And the price at the pump won’t change until the next purchase by the retailer is for cheaper oil than the last purchase was. Which may not be for awhile.

And the futures prices are watching developments; like no one going to Switzerland to talk peace after all. 

Donald Trump, unsurprisingly, doesn’t understand any of this.