Lies, Damned Lies, And…

Violent crime is spiking. Homicides in cities were up by 25-40 percent in 2020, the largest single-year increase since 1960. And 2021 isn’t looking any better.

This is a crisis on its own terms. But it’s also a crisis for the broader liberal project in two downstream ways.

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) May 21, 2021

"Spiking" is one of those emotionally charged terms politicians love to use to scare people about crime levels they probably aren’t aware of.  So we’re off to a bad start already (not that any rise in crime levels isn’t bad).  Bur “rising crime” and “spikes in crime” have been weapons of politics for as far back as I can remember.  Worse is the loose employment of “largest single year increase since….”  It’s the baseline that matters, not the percentage increase comparable to increases over prior years.  Sometimes twice nothing is still nothing.  If, for example, homicides have been low for some time, a 25-40% increase might be 10 more than 2019.  But put this way, as a greater increase than has been since in 60 years, it sounds like the world is coming to an end.  Which, of course, is Klein’s purpose. But context matters, especially historical context:

yes, still well below

— John Roy (@JohnRoycomic) May 21, 2021

I'm assuming, arguendo, that these statements are correct. It can certainly be easily researched. But it's telling that Klein rushes breathlessly past his opening “scary statement” to offer his solution to the problem he proposes looms for “liberals.”  The most important part of a problem/solution argument is defining the problem so it is solved by your solution.  Klein can’t offer salvation to “liberals” unless he can first threaten them with damnation.

I suspect as the world rushes back to “normal” crime statistics may take on some resonance among voters. Klein’s examples all focus on mayoral races, where the issue of crime is a perennial one.  Whether it rises above city races to a state, or even national level, is dubious.  The ‘90’s were, as I recall, the era of “wilding” and fears of gangs ravaging white enclaves.  Joe Biden had a problem with that history in the campaign, IIRC.  But the 80’s were preceded by the ‘60’s, with plenty of violence prompted by the civil rights and anti war efforts, which led into the political violence of the ‘70’s, violence we have mostly pushed down the memory hole (Patty Hearst is all we remember now, but she was the least of it).  That led to the violence of the ‘80’s (where it peaked for the most part)  which carried over into the panic of the ‘90’s.

So it took almost three decades for violence to become such a problem it became a key part of national politics.  I don’t think we’re going to return to that situation within 12 months after the pandemic is fully in the rear-view mirror.  But if we don’t have that problem, of what use is Klein’s solution?