What To Expect When You're Electing...

Trump plants more seeds for refusing to concede – falsely claims ‘tens of thousands’ of ballots are ‘fraudulent’ https://t.co/uEMtOvGLEC

— Raw Story (@RawStory) October 15, 2020

And thousands of voters were bussed into New Hampshire to vote (because NH doesn't have voter registration laws?).

Let's just go over this again, shall we?  First, the President is not elected by the people, and the deadline for counting ballots is not midnight on November 3, 2020.

Nov. 3, 2020: Election Day, when voters in each state will select their presidential electors. The names of electors are not on the ballot in most states. Rather, when a voter casts a vote for a presidential candidate, s/he is also casting a vote for the electors already selected by the party of that candidate. If a majority of voters in a state vote for the Republican candidate for president, the Republican slate of electors is elected. If a majority vote for the Democratic candidate, the Democratic slate of electors is chosen.

Dec. 8, 2020: Deadline for Resolving Election Disputes. All state recounts and court contests over presidential election results must be completed by this date. (3 U.S.C. § 5).

Dec. 14, 2020: Meeting of the Electors. The electors meet in each state and cast their ballots for president and vice president. Each elector votes on his or her own ballot and signs it. The ballots are immediately transmitted to various people: one copy goes to the president of the U.S. Senate (who is also the vice president of the United States); this is the copy that will be officially counted later. Other copies go to the state's secretary of state, the National Archives and Records Administration, and the presiding judge in the district where the electors meet (this serves as a backup copy that would replace the official copy sent to the president of the Senate if it is lost or destroyed).

Dec. 23, 2020: Deadline for Receipt of Ballots. The electors' ballots from all states must be received by the president of the Senate by this date. There is no penalty for missing this deadline.

Jan. 6, 2021: Counting of the Electoral Ballots. The U.S. Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes.

Jan. 20, 2021: Inauguration Day.  The president-elect becomes the president of the United States.

That first deadline is the one Florida ran afoul of in Bush v. Gore.  Under that ruling, any electoral disputes not resolved by that date are thrown out and the status quo before the dispute was raised, is what controls. This means Trump has just over a month after Election Day to raise legitimate concerns about vote counts or fraudulent ballots, and to get them decided in his favor.  Good luck with that, especially if he brings several challenges in several areas of the country. Claiming there are "tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots" is not good enough; he'll need evidence.  He doesn't have any, and he won't come up with any sufficient to do more than throw out a lot of ballots.  Which brings up the question of cui bono?  How does Trump benefit by having votes tossed out, or recounts conducted (which may or may not be possible; every state has its own laws on when a recount can be demanded.  The states run their own elections, remember.) Some GOP office holders may not appreciate challenges to ballots directly (fraud in voting), because that could endanger their votes (you can't pick and choose which votes are preserved and which are discarded ballot by ballot.  If a ballot is fraudulent, every vote on it is tossed out.)  They may join those suits to block him, in other words.  Even the GOP may withdraw its support for those efforts. At some point there's nothing to be gained by immolating the party for Trump's sake. Every man for himself at that point, especially if Trump has lost.  Rats are already signalling it's time to jump ship.  That situation won't improve if Trump decides to sue all over the country.  I really don't think he will, because he'll have lost control of the GOP apparatus by then. Even if he does, the cases he finds lawyers to take to court inevitably turn against him.  Given the deadline set by Bush v. Gore, he can't run out the clock on this, or continously appeal an adverse ruling.  His primary legal strategies just won't work.

Come December 14 the electors meet, and any "faithless electors" may bolt their state's vote count and vote for Trump (or Biden).  It happens, but it means nothing. (Two faithless electors in Texas refused to vote for Trump in 2016.  He won anyway.)  All it really means is the AP electoral tally is not official. Nor, necessarily, is the count based on states won by candidates (Trump won 306 electoral votes, but was elected by 304).

Congress (a new Congress) then meets on January 6 to count the electoral ballots, and that's when the President is actually elected.  That person becomes President on January 20, 2021.

And there's nothing Trump can do about it after December 8, 2020.  It's over, and if he lost, he's out.  Period.  He may egotistically and narcisistically insist he was the victim of fraud, but it won't keep him in the White House or block the "peaceful" transfer of power.  It's "peaceful" not because Trump concedes, but because the rest of the government, including the armed forces, takes an oath to the Constitution, not to the President nor to Trump. He can squawk all the wants, but the military and the police forces of the federal government are not going to war for him over this issue.  If he's not out of the White Houe by January 20 at noon, he'll be dragged out.

And I still don't think Pence will agree to replacing a lame-duck Trump in December and pardoning Trump as his first and only act as President.  Pence has political ambitions of his own.  Ford never recovered from pardoning Nixon.  Besides, New York is after Trump on state law violations which no Presidential pardon can reach (would Trump pardon himself?  Would the Supreme Court be stupid enough to uphold that? Hard cases make bad law.  But that issue will be settled long after January 20, 2021.).

Trump's complaints aabout "fraudulent ballots" and an "unfair election" are largely Trump's ego refusing to accept his failure, his loss.  As we have learned from his Twitter account, however, his words are not deeds.  His speech is not an act.  Even if he tells his lawyers to go to court, that doesn't require the court acquiesce to his demands.  Even if he refuses to leave the White House, on January 20, 2021, he will no longer be the Commander in Chief of anybody.

In short, the water is already draining from the tub, and Trump is not draining away with it.  But he's starting to feel the chill, and it's likely only to get colder.