Looking Forward 👀

Bill Barr gave Trump a profanity-filled analysis of why he was going to lose the 2020 election: Bob Woodward https://t.co/5yCrteIiYy

— Raw Story (@RawStory) September 16, 2021

PRRI: 

 Less than three in ten Americans (29%) agree that “The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump,” compared to 69% who disagree, including 58% who completely disagree. These views have remained stable since March 2021. But Republicans hold views that are far outliers compared to the opinions of other Americans. More than seven in ten Republicans (71%) report that they believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, compared to 23% of independents and only 5% of Democrats.

Whenever Trump is in public, he talks about how the 2020 election was "stolen" from him.  Yes, he said the same thing about the 2016 election, which he won only on electoral votes, not the popular vote.  That rankled him for four years, until November 2020.  Does anyone expect him to stop complaining about 2020 before 2024?

The GOP seems intent, or doomed, to make Trump their nominee in 2024.  Whether that happens or not, as a very partisan Democrat I say:  BRING IT!  Trump is going to inspire 29% of Americans by his Big Lie to...what?  Stay home?  Give up on the electoral process because it's rigged?

America has never had a healthy turnout of voters, and the common excuses are that it's not worth it, or voting doesn't matter, or the difference between the parties is the difference between Tweedledee and Tweedledum, or it's just riddled with fraud.  Frankly, just because Trump is trumpeting the fraud angle, doesn't make it any more true or dangerous to American democracy than such lies were before Trump decided to enter politics.  Same as it ever was.  I wouldn't be surprised if 29% of Americans always thought the electoral process was "rigged" in one way or another.  And yet here we are.

You really can't get your people to the polls with "If I don't win, it's because they cheated!"  If "they" are gonna cheat, what's the point of my vote?  It really is an absurdly self-defeating campaign slogan.  And combined with Gavin Newsom's direct and deliberate efforts to protect people from infectious disease, it's probably why his recall stalled out as badly as it did (that and the GOP in California undoubtedly overplayed their hand).  Larry Elder proclaimed the whole process a fraud until the day of the election (final day, since every registered voter in CA had a ballot mailed to them).  Oddly, on that very day, he conceded defeat and promised to run again in...2024?

But he doesn't seem to interested in the "fraud" narrative anymore.  Maybe he knows something Trump doesn't?

Trump issues statement in support of Jan. 6 rioters — two days ahead of DC rally https://t.co/FxkdoJCqkX

— Raw Story (@RawStory) September 16, 2021

Yeah, he should run on this, too.

According to new data from PRRI, majorities of Americans say white supremacist groups (59%), former president Donald Trump (56%), and conservative media platforms that spread conspiracy theories and misinformation (55%) shoulder a lot of responsibility for the violent actions of the rioters who took over the U.S. Capitol on January 6. These views have stayed remarkably stable since mid-January, when 62% placed a lot of blame on white supremacist groups, 57% on Trump, and 57% on conservative media platforms that spread misinformation. There are not significant differences between these numbers and January data within subgroups, either.

Bill Barr told Trump he’d lose in 2020 because Trump was busy satiating his base and repulsing the voters the GOP needed to win. Do we expect things to be any different in 2024 if Trump is the nominee?