Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Explanations To Follow

So, about those crimes; maybe we could start here? And then move on... Yeah, we can enjoy that later. And frankly, sometimes the bullshit debunks itself. I mean, it’s not a defense to a sexual assault charge; it’s not a defense to a libel claim; and given the famous photograph everyone associates with this trial, it’s not even vaguely credible. Sometimes journalism is letting the reader understand.

In November 2017, 61% of voters – including 56% of men and a nontrivial margin of white men (50-43) and white women (55-37) – said then-President Trump should be impeached and removed from office if he were proven to have engaged in “sexual harassment,” according to a Quinnipiac poll. That overall support – the eye popping number of 61% – was higher than any poll tracking public support for impeachment and removal from office for the scandalous conduct in Trump’s first and second impeachments (see Five Thirty-Eight’s complete collection of surveys for the first and second impeachment). What’s more, Quinnipiac asked only about sexual harassment not sexual assault in the case of Trump. The latter, which is also the core crime in the E. Jean Carroll verdict, would have presumably produced even greater levels of support for removal from office. 
The Quinnipiac poll was not alone. 
A December 2017 Public Policy Polling survey found 53% of voters thought Trump should resign because of the “allegations” of sexual harassment against him, and another Quinnipiac poll in December 2017 found that 50% of voters already thought Trump should resign because he had “been accused of sexual harassment and sexual assault by multiple women.” (See appendix below for the exact wording and results of each of these surveys.) 
These results are no surprise when taken in context of recent social science studies. Rigorous empirical research shows that Americans generally consider sexual assault incompatible with serving in elected office or positions of public trust (see e.g., Savani and Collignon, 2023; Stark and Collignon, 2022; Masuoka, Grose and Junn, 2021; Craig and Cossette, 2020). A 2020 study in the journal Political Behavior found that “(1) a significant electoral penalty is likely to be assessed against politicians accused of sexual harassment; (2) the size of that penalty (in terms of lost votes and lower favorability) … is concentrated among co-partisans and, to a lesser extent, Independents.” That study, like many others, concerned “accusations” and “allegations” of misbehavior; the results are likely to be even more pronounced in the event of allegations being proven – especially in a court and especially by a unanimous verdict.

 And somebody on FoxNews basically agrees:

Again, the photograph. And while Fox will find a spin for this tonight. But there’s another civil case going to trial in October, and three more criminal cases likely to come.

Hard to see a bright future for Trump in that.
See how easily it spins away? Trust Dick Morris to find the way. OUTREACH! What a concept!*

*Is it bad journalism if I don’t explain that was sarcasm?
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