Wool Gathering

So far turnout in NY-03 is very low —“nothing” is the exact quote— Queens turnout is a quarter of 2022 by 10 am and Nassau even lower, I’m told.

Still snowing on LI but should be better later so it could change but it’s looking like an old fashioned snow day, schools all out ❄️

— Jacqueline Sweet (@JSweetLI) February 13, 2024

This is the Santos replacement special election. Conventional wisdom says Democrats vote early, GOP voters are elderly and vote in Election Day. Fir the life of me, if early voting is available, why does anybody vote on Election Day?

This is how Mike Lee justifies sacrificing up Ukraine to the rapist invaders from Russia.

Just lie back and enjoy it, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/lmjfJRvCCG

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) February 13, 2024

Wasn’t that Chamberlain’s line?

I still really want someone to write a generational biography of the GOP men -- people like Cruz, Lee, Rubio -- who HAD to have been attracted to the Republican party by Ronald Reagan, who just voted to give Ukraine to Russia. pic.twitter.com/JruY9W19N9

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) February 13, 2024

They were attracted to the easy path to clean work-no boss-short hours-no heavy lifting. And, like Reagan, all they have to do is utter banalities from time to time.

And to all the hand-wringers out there, certain the Court will bend time and space to help Trump, a question: when in 2020 did the Supremes ever help Trump?

People seem to forget that in 2022 SCOTUS declined to entertain Trump's appeal of 11thC order allowing DOJ to investigate Trump.

That appeal went thru Thomas. Didn't work. It was, in part, a Q abt whether Trump could be investigated.

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) February 12, 2024

Jn fact, I see a bright, silver lining in Roberts’ direction to DOJ to respond ASAP. He wants to dispose of this quickly, and while he has first bite at the apple, he still has to share with the class. Even if he’s unpersuaded, there have to be four votes for cert., or five to stay. Or a round rejection by the bench. I don’t think the Court wants to cobble together a reason to stay (they won’t do it just because, they’ll have to follow procedure; or spend a lot of effort explaining why they don’t have to), and from what I’ve read, Trump’s brief presents no good argument at all. So if DOJ does their job, that’s enough for the Court to refuse both stay and cert.

This is the way it works. Quit treating it like a TeeVee show or a zero sum game. If Trump isn’t losing fast enough for you, take up a new hobby.

Besides, Trump’s odds of winning are “zip” and “none.” He barely beat Hillary, who was never the political candidate Biden is (experience counts). And Trump is dissolving publicly into a gibbering idiot, while Democrats bear expectations like a rented mule in every special election that comes up. The best part if this is yet to come. If Trump does postpone some of his trials to 2025, and doesn’t win the White House, his grift runs into a brick wall. What campaign does he raise money for then? And as I keep saying, trials are where the meter keeps running, like one of those out of control dials in the movies.

Trump is going to find his delay strategy biting him in the ass. And that’s “heads you win, tails he loses.”