Context for tonight: "Uncommitted" has tended to get ~20K votes in recent Michigan presidential primaries
— Kabir K. / kabirkhanna.bsky.social (@kabir_here) February 27, 2024
Dem:
19K (1%) in '20
22K (2%) in '16
21K (11%) in '12
238K (40%) in '08 (NOTE: Obama was not on ballot)
GOP:
28K (4%) in '20
23K (2%) in '16
19K (2%) in '12
18K (2%) in '08
The obvious rejoinder to this is that a massive number are turning out for Biden in what isn't even a contested race. Percentages are the better metric. For that this number isn't much higher than it was when Obama was running for reelection. Currently 11% to ~15% https://t.co/kq8G1Nyqle
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 28, 2024
According to the NYT, of the 34 counties with more than a quarter of their vote in, Uncommitted is at 15% or above in exactly three of them.
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) February 28, 2024
if you are disappointed in coverage of Michigan Democratic primary as i am, To Follow!keep this in mind: 11% of voters in 2012 Dem primary voted "uncommitted". Obama ended up winning Michigan in the fall by more than 450,000 votes.
— Matthew Dowd (@matthewjdowd) February 28, 2024
Biden Dominates Michigan Primary Despite Fake Media Narrative https://t.co/5oO7TFBvIu
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) February 28, 2024
With 27% of the precincts reporting, Biden won 79.9% with just 2.7% for Dean Phillips and 14.4% Uncommitted. However, that number of Uncommitted is expected to drop as the votes continue to come in from counties that are very favorable to Biden.
Meanwhile, in primary after primary, Donald Trump's margins of victory are less than the polls indicated and far less than he predicted. He defeated Nikki Haley by 67-28% with 31% reporting. The 538 polling average had Trump winning by 57 points. Not quite. The reality is that the Democratic Party is united behind their president, and the Republican Party under Trump has never been more divided or dissatisfied with their candidate.Trump continues to underperform.
UPDATE: Trump on the attack while the polls are still open in Michigan
— Chad Livengood (@ChadLivengood) February 27, 2024
"She's gonna lose like by 80 points tonight. She's become a joke," Trump said of @NikkiHaley on @wjrradio.https://t.co/zeJutf43HS
via @CraigDMauger & @detroitnews
And then it went...down:MI Voters Who Voted ‘Uncommitted’ in Obama’s primaries:
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 28, 2024
2008 - 39.61
2012 - 10.69
Uncommitted 2024 - 14.7
2/ we might call a normie-Dem driven counter-protest. That's what gets you a really big overall turnout. It also keeps the uncommitted vote relatively low in percentage terms. What happening now is that the Biden % has been gaining on UC substantially over the last hour or ...
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 28, 2024
It’s all about the narrative though.4/ Dearborn had UC at like 75%. But 11:30 is was down to like 56%. So that split is significant.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 28, 2024
FWIW the "Uncommitted" campaign has to be very, very happy with tonight's results — the narrative in the media is already set.
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024
They set a benchmark of 20K votes, and they cleared it easily. Virtually every politician and reporter is now saying it was a big success.
Elections are about optics more than anything. The more of a longshot something is, the more this rings true.
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024
It's impossible to really determine a good benchmark for "uncommitted", so it's about making sure that you can get out in front of the story and set the tone yourself.
Primaries with incumbents are inherently boring; and news needs a story.So at the end, here's where we are.
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024
- Not much overwhelmingly conclusive evidence of Biden's Gaza stance hurting him electorally.
- Not much evidence that Gaza protest vote was that big
- Media/politicians seemingly think it was, though, so mission accomplished, message received
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