Friday, November 01, 2024

Signs And Portents And Voting Trends

"Early vote records have been shattered not only in Georgia and other presidential battlegrounds such as North Carolina but even in states without major contests on the ballot like New Jersey and Louisiana," said the report. Part of the reason for the shift is that "During the pandemic in 2020, then-President Donald Trump railed against early voting and mail voting, claiming they were part of a plot to steal the election from him. In 2022, after falsely blaming his 2020 loss on early voting, he kept at it" — but this time, Trump and the GOP have made an aggressive push for people to vote early.
Or, considering Trump’s push to early voting came after early voting had started, perhaps there are other factors at play. One is the rise of voter turnout, which has continued this year and it can be now argued to be a trend, not an aberration. It could be turnout has peaked; or it could be turnout will set new records. Either way, it’s still too early to tell this is a new the era in voting, or if the norm will reassert itself. So far, the signs point to a change in history far more than the impact of one campaign shift at the end of the race.

There’s also the matter of the extended campaign of Trump, something noted even by the Special Counsel in the D.C. case:
"He appears to take the position that he cannot be investigated by anyone for anything once he has announced his candidacy.”

Nice work, if you can get it. And the reason Trump has been running for two years. Also the reason the nation has been subjected to his campaign for two years. Which has to be considered a factor in voter turnout so far: a pent-up desire to finally vote, either because the two year drumbeat has driven them to the polls; or they are anxious to see it end. Wouldn’t it be ironic if what Trump hungrily sought for his salvation, becomes the seal on his doom? History is full of such ironies. This wouldn’t be the first time hubris and greed led to an unintended end.

“Somethin’s happenin’ here/what it is ain’t exactly clear…”. But it could well be a good thing; a very good thing, if only because it signals increased participation in our democracy. Because when more of us engage in our governance, the few of us can’t be in charge. That only happens as the rest of us don’t act. That would be the very good thing to come out if this chapter in American history, this goal that has been sought at least since Goldwater was defeated, which vengeance may finally be defeated itself.

By this time next week, we’ll have a much better idea whether that’s happened. History tends to shift gradually, until it seems it’s changed all at once.

Or will it be a surprise? 🤔
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