Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Up To the Minute Uncertainty

How fluid?
Just to be really clear:

Voters are far ahead of Republican senators. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, registered voters want witnesses by a margin of 75 to 20 percent. That includes “49 percent of Republicans, 95 percent of Democrats, and 75 percent of independents.” In a party known for its cultish obedience to the White House line, Trump cannot even peddle his “no witnesses” snake oil.

Trump has also lost a majority of voters on the merits. “More than half of voters, 53-40 percent, say President Trump is not telling the truth about his actions involving Ukraine. ... More than half of voters, 54 percent, believe President Trump abused his power regarding his actions involving Ukraine, while 42 percent say he did not. A similar 52 percent think that President Trump obstructed Congress regarding its investigation of his actions involving Ukraine, while 42 percent think he did not.” They don’t buy that there was a legitimate reason to suspend aid (52 percent "think the Trump administration’s withholding of U.S. aid to Ukraine was not justified, while 34 percent say it was justified”).

Democrats are holding firm, giving the back of the hand to any proposal to “trade” witnesses. As Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said, if the Republicans have 51 votes, they can subpoena anyone they want (although Democrats would undoubtedly object on relevance and appeal to the chief justice).
But there's still the devil you know, v. the devil you don't know.  Senators could face challenges in primaries, which is (apparently) what they fear most.  Yes, Bolton's book is going to come out, yes there will be ads in September and October, but that's the devil they don't know:  yet.  The one they do know, waits in the primaries.  Which, if you haven't noticed, start next week. Yeah, it's not just the Democrats who are caucusing.
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