AP has Biden at 248 EV's (without Michigan), so this would put him in range with only Nevada (where he's leading, again per AP) with it's 6 EV's needed to win. NBC is not crediting AZ to Biden yet, but AP is. That's the difference in the tabulation.NBC: Biden wins Michigan, reaches 253 electoral votes. https://t.co/nwMGHkzheh
— Willie Geist (@WillieGeist) November 4, 2020
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) November 4, 2020
None of this is official, of course. But this may shut down soon, except for Trump futilely in court over how ballots are being counted (I've seen too many of this lawsuits. The embarassing thing is that he finds lawyers willing to waste the court's time on wholly frivolous claims.). I expect the process is going to sweep by the courts entirely and move on to the meeting of the electors in December. Take this as an example:
If Trump has the states AP says he does, and that NBC says he does, and he picks up just NV, it's game over. PA won't matter. Yeah, Trump can file suits in AZ and NV and MI and MN and wherever else he wants to take votes away from Biden, but courts don't like to get involved in determining vote counts. At most they will invalidate "late" ballots or ballots deemed to be in violation of state law (postmarked too late, improperly signed, etc.). But they won't throw out votes just until Trump wins, which is what Trump will be asking for. And in general, they don't throw out votes, for any reason; because it looks like the courts are determining the election.The 1M+ mail-in ballots PA is still counting are those that were received *on time.*
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) November 4, 2020
The #SCOTUS case is about those received *late," which PA is storing *separately.*
So even *if* late-arriving ballots are an issue, that has nothing to do with counting all of the on-time ones.
Yeah, Bush v. Gore DID determine an election. But the Supremes had the fig leaf of only stopping the recount, not determining which votes counted and which didn't. And even then they didn't immediately issue written opinions, and tried to act like they didni't know where that turd in the national punchbowl came from. I think Alito and Thomas and probably Gorsuch (ACB is a cipher right now) would be happy to interfere, but even Kavanaugh doesn't seem willing to go that far (I think Roberts took him out behind the woodshed and explained the ways of the world to him). So I think this thing is over when the counting is done, and it looks like the counting favors Biden.
Nothing Trump can do about that.
Adding: this is what I'm talking about on the subject of the competence of Trump's legal strategies:
And yeah, it just gets worse:Rudy is now talking about a “national lawsuit” on the Trump campaign allegations of fraud during Philly event. What entity does he imagine he would be suing in that case?
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 4, 2020
I truly think Giuliani is suffering from some kind of undiagnosed mental disorder/disease. That boy is just not right."It's a novel procedure, this mail-in thing,'' says Rudy Giuliani.
— Bob Hardt (@bobhardt) November 4, 2020
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) November 4, 2020
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