The Mac 'N' Cheese For Old White Men Candidate

Except that's not what most models show. not even close. The right's vote is vastly more cohesive and Manchin will sell as "moderate dem on the no labels line" to soft Dem voters.

It's a Trump SuperPAC. https://t.co/HM32WM79hV

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) April 2, 2023

I saw Joe Manchin on MTP this morning. 

Let's start there.

He all but announced his desire to be the "No Labels" candidate.  And I agree, NL is a Trump superpac.  But its model for success is Bush v Clinton v Perot.  Let me explain why this is not 1992 redux.

Clinton was the governor from Arkansas who was supposed to be buried by "60 Minutes" (yeah, back when they did real journalism) for his inability to keep his pants zipped (that part was always true.  Whitewater was a training course for the modern day GOP.  Try to keep up, punks!).  It didn't destroy him (much as "Grab 'em by the pussy!" didn't destroy Trump decades later, but for vastly different reasons), and he labeled himself "The Comeback Kid."

Bush had Lee Atwater in '88, but not (IIRC) in '92.  He floundered, in other words.  He'd broken his "No new taxes" pledge from '88, and voters remembered.  Perot fired up voters who saw a "third way," but he floundered badly, too. In fact, he proved himself an unreliable crackpot, dropping out of the race, but unable to get off the ballots in the states where he was on the ballot (not all 50).  Pundits still argue that Perot stole votes from Bush, but it's just as likely voters for Perot would have stayed home rather than vote for Bush, so there's literally no way to prove the claim (or disprove it).  And Clinton was a better politician than he was then given credit for (and all that rubbed off on Hillary was Bill's unfavorables).  He certainly had more charisma than any politician in the 20th century since FDR.

Joe Manchin this morning on MTP displayed all the charisma of a grandfather at Cracker Barrel about to dig into the macaroni and cheese.

Ross Perot came blazing out of the blue (a la Clinton), promising to "get under the hood" (no, I'm quoting, not exaggerating) and "fix" what was wrong with America!  The ideal 3rd party candidate, in other words.  The former governor of North Carolina (whose name escapes me; no loss) was on the MTP panel beating the "No Labels" drum, claiming "we've never seen numbers like this before!" and if a 3rd party candidate ran for POTUS, he/she would in (actually I think he just said "he").  A former Obama campaign staffer (a high up), countered that we see these numbers two years into every Administration as the pundits obsess over the next election.  And once you put actual people in the "would you vote for anybody but the major party presumptives?", the enthusiasm drops off rapidly.

Joe Manchin told Chuck Todd he just wants to do what's right, and he's "worried" about the deficit and inflation.  Wow.  Where do I sign up? Oh, never mind, I forgot what I was signing up for.  What was he saying?

People vote for people, not ideas or "replacements" or "none of the above."  I suppose if we had ranked choice voting with that last choice as an option we could get a third-party candidate into office, and Congress could dissolve into the Israeli parliament, with numerous small parties vying for control and a POTUS of no Congressional party in the White House.  What could go wrong?

But that's not gonna happen; and Joe Manchin is gonna be lucky to win West Virginia again, which is why he wants the Presidential race to be his swan song.  But the thing about the swan song is that, according to the myth, the swan sings it immediately before dying.  Apt metaphor, in this case.

The failure mode of every...single...third...party is that they start at the top.

There's no path to 270. None. Zero. Fuckola.

Want a 3rd party? Start electing people to school boards. City councils. County commissions. State House seats.

Build up, not down.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) April 2, 2023

That is, of course, absolutely correct.  Which is why "No Labels" is a spoiler and a Trump superpac.  But Trump is as reviled today as Hillary Clinton ever was.  Trump v Biden redux will be Nixon v McGovern:  it'll be a rout.  If Joe Manchin runs, he'll barely be noticed.  Ross Perot was a wild man who made wild claims (sound familiar?  Everything old is new again.), who was known mostly for being rich (he could buy and sell Trump from his pocket change.  Unlike Trump, Perot really was a billionaire.).  Again, sound familiar?  And he rallied people to his cause who thought a savior would at last run the world as they saw fit, and "fix" everything (or "drain the swamp").  Except, of course, the world doesn't work like that.

And Joe Manchin is not gonna out-grandpa Joe Biden, or convince any independent Biden voters (or even Democrats) that Manchin will do what Biden can't.  Manchin was still talking about inflation being caused by federal budget deficits, an idea Paul Volcker shot through the heart and burned on a funeral pyre under Reagan when he broke inflation with high interest rates (what the Fed does for inflation to this day).  Yes, Republicans still talked about deficits and inflation as cause and effect (unless they were in office!), but nobody's really buying that snake oil anymore.  And besides, Manchin is a Democrat!  From West Virginia!  With the appeal of somebody's grandfather you really don't know well and aren't all that anxious to sit at Thanksgiving dinner with.

There is no path to 270 for a third party candidate.  There's also no path to a spoiler in Biden v Trump.  Too many people despise Trump to sit home or show up and pull the lever for Manchin.  They still remember what their indifference did to the country for four years.  And Trump's indictments/criminal trials are going to drive his numbers down even further, and persuade more people to vote to be sure he can't win.

"Put money in your purse."