Monday, April 03, 2023

When Two Disparate Minds Think Alike

On the subject of Trump, I often agree with George. And the downside of that to the rest of us is? Trump is just carving out a smaller and smaller segment of the electorate, who will probably get him through the primaries, but no further. I'll go further: The data referred to there is meaningless in late 2024. Trump v. Biden v. Person to be named later depends heavily on how you fill that slot, and what happens to Trump in the meantime.  Trump is already disliked by a majority of the electorate.  Indictments and criminal trials (and even Jean Carroll's civil suit) are not going to broaden his appeal.  Using January 6th as a campaign prop makes it even worse.  And then, if you put in Joe Deputy Dawg Lieberman (a No Labels proponent) or Grandpa Oatmeal Joe Manchin, enthusiasm plummets even lower, and Biden walks in. Never forget the advantage of incumbency.  Even Trump did better in 2020 than he deserved to, just because of the conservative (small 'c') tendency to keep the devil you know for four more years.  Arguably that's how Trump won in 2016:  he was the devil we didn't know, and Hillary, who we did, just seemed enough worse to let Trump squeak by.

Yup; not surprising, either. Just wait for the trials to start, though. Or, as Asha says, just the unsealing of the indictment. If this is much more a business records case than a "paid a porn star to keep mum about a one-night stand" case, the analysis shifts dramatically. Trump argues NDA's are commong for rich guys like him. But business fraud is common for DA's like Bragg. (Although I am curious: how do they get to 102% in such matters? Where's the overlap?)

And I could do entire posts out of Schooley's tweets alone:
Trump the Cat. People like cats, right? But do you want to see them seated at the Resolute Desk? Aren't they notoriously disinterested in everyone but themselves? I'll be repeating myself for months, so get used to it, but: NOT A LEGAL DEFENSE! Law of diminishing returns, bay-bee! I think they're all just rats in a trap, or people in a round room looking desperately for the corner they've been told to sit in.
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