It was always wrong, because the 40 or so percent of people who say they “approve” of @realDonaldTrump has always included people who “somewhat” approve (15-20%), in addition to those who “strongly approve” (20-25%). At least the “somewhat” folks can be picked off. https://t.co/zbSXc9whCA— George Conway (@gtconway3d) June 29, 2020
Well, that and we don't have a parliamentary system, or Trump would have faced a "no-confidence" vote years ago, and been flushed out (he'd never have gotten this far, in fact. He exposes an inherent weakness in OUR system.).
But that "40% support" that's repeated like a mantra or a talisman against evil (or just for keeping the elephants away) ignores both the signal factore that NO PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES HAS EVEN BEEN REMOVED FROM OFFICE INVOLUNTARILY. So the fact a President persists in office for at least 4 years is not a sign of anything, except a truly obsequious Senate which only wants to see judges appointed because that's what the Majority Leader wants.
Otherwise, Trump's support is....what, exactly?
But that 40% has always been more "meh" than "MAGA!" Look, the guy couldn't get more than 6000 to travel to Tulsa (and it's always been a traveling show, never a show of grassroots support wherever he plants his foot. He doesn't make a thousand flowers grow where ever he is, he brings the artificial flowers with him). And many of them were bored. His support is tissue thin and much of it is "yeah, I guess" or diehard "Anybody but a Demoncrat!"
And frankly, even if all 25% of the people who "strongly support" Trump show up at the polls in November, that's not enough to win in any one state, much less enough states to take the electoral college again.
Trump was never going to "cruise" to re-election. And he's not running against Adlai Stevenson again. The question to be answered in November is not: will he lose? It's only: by how much?