Wednesday, April 30, 2025

COMING THIS SUMMER!

Sorry, kid, but tariffs hit the North Pole, too.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday.

April 2: Tariffs announced, containership departures from China to U.S. slowing

Early-to-mid May: Containerships to U.S. ports come to a stop

Mid-to-late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt, leading to empty shelves and lower sales for companies

Late May to early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industries

Summer 2025: recession
Supply chains: broken until at least Xmas. And Ebenezer Trump telling us all to suck it!

Trump recreating Jimmy Carter’s MEOW speech is going to be the cherry on the sundae. He’ll just tell us it’s all our fault for not clapping loudly enough to revive Tinkerbelle. Or more likely it’s our tough luck and don’t come whining to him about it.

Nothin’ but good times ahead! 

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