Ukraine: The Longer View 🌻

(Reuters) - President Zelenskiy said on Friday Ukraine had reached a strategic turning point in its war with Russia.

"It is impossible to say how many days we still have to free Ukrainian land. But we can say we will do it. For we have already reached a strategic turning point"

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 11, 2022

At least two million Ukrainians have fled Russia’s invasion. Amid sanctions and a clampdown on dissent, Russians, too, have been pouring out of their country in recent weeks.

But a Russian exodus to the U.S. was already well underway before the war.https://t.co/Rpwqt7LgNs pic.twitter.com/hJlghX8QvD

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 11, 2022

BREAKING - Russia just started process of banning Instagram.

It’s huge because this is really a much loved platform in Russia and also the source of income for lots of small businesses across the country. And for young Moscow elites it’s.. everything pic.twitter.com/12S3JupG4g

— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) March 11, 2022

🚨🚨🚨🚨#BREAKING #Ukraine
⁦@CBSNews⁩ // UnitedNations https://t.co/s6Jf5r7WHJ

— Pamela Falk United Nations (@PamelaFalk) March 11, 2022

Same energy.

Hannity asks Trump what he would if he was in charge or what advice would he give Joe Biden. His response sounds more like an answer to being asked what you would do if you were in Putin’s situation pic.twitter.com/lZ6hOczk0x

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 11, 2022

Hannity: What about Putin and all the other dictators in the world?

Trump: “I got along with these people. I got along with them well…I understood them. And perhaps they understood me. Maybe they understood me even better. That’s okay.”
Via @Acyn: pic.twitter.com/cPnLbMPAC8

— Tim O'Brien (@TimOBrien) March 11, 2022

And now we understand you better. Good luck with that.

Russian ambassador to UN, Vasily Nebenzya, is actually claiming that Ukraine and the US had a plot to spread biological weapons with migratory birds, bats and insects.
Amazing scenes.

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2022

Kind of wondering how that's gonna work.

Nebenzya: "The risk of this is very real given the interests of the radical nationalist groups in Ukraine are showing towards the work with dangerous pathogens conducted together with the ministry of defence of the United States".

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2022

These are the people Trump "understands."

French permanent representative, Nicolas de Rivière: "France is very concerned at the possibility that this disinformation campaign may be the prelude to the use of a chemical or biological weapon orchestrated by Russia in Ukraine".

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2022

The Chinese permanent representative, Zhang Jun did not go all in echoing the Russian migratory birds and bats story, as the foreign ministry has done, but said "The concerns raised by Russia should be properly addressed" and called for "multilateral verification".

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2022

All hail the Irish permanent representative. And frankly, the Chinese want back a bit of their own, after all the screaming in America (from Trump on down, let us not forget) calling for investigations and verification over the origins of covid-19. And since we're on the subject of Ukraine:

Western official confirms Ukrainian claim that Russian major-general from the eastern military district has been killed, the third so far. (See below) https://t.co/p6RSRWblEa

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 11, 2022

Western official in response to my question on number of Russian deaths: "...the US latest figures are 5,000 to 6,000 in the public domain. We, from our point of view, think that that is in the right order of magnitude"

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 11, 2022

Western official: "The Ukrainians have been incredibly smart about how they've dispersed their forces...even now we see in terms of the sorties which are being flown by Russia, they are limited in their range, and their ability."

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 11, 2022

Ukrainian military victories are not the only story:

Complete destruction of civilians. The Russians want to empty out these cities completely. https://t.co/zTtlly08Nf

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) March 11, 2022

And then there's Putin's state of mind:

Putin: “The USSR always lived under sanctions and succeeded.”

I don’t even know where to begin, other than we should expect to see a mass exodus of Russians out of the country. It’s already happening. https://t.co/ZjMyOK0bd1

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) March 11, 2022

Western official can't confirm Beseda/Bolukh under house arrest but says both likely played major role in invasion planning so if reports correct would indicate Putin v concerned about FSB role in campaign & more big changes in FSB leadership could followhttps://t.co/4u4QrrgfzB

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 11, 2022

I heard reports on MSNBC this morning that Putin is coming very unstuck over the inability of his military to finish the job in Ukraine.  Here is something approaching confirmation:

A now-deleted article on Meduza claims Putin started purging entourage in response to failed military campaign in 🇺🇦

Quoting journalists A. Soldatov & I. Borohan, Meduza says heads of FSB Foreign Intelligence Sergey Beseda & deputy Bolukh are arrested https://t.co/K7yQI03naR

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 11, 2022

"It seems that after two weeks of war, Putin finally realized that he had simply been misled: the 5th Service, fearing to irritate the leader, simply provided him with the information he wanted to hear."

FSB's 5th Service is responsible for intl' relations & foreign intelligence

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 11, 2022

Again, Putin is Trump; or might as well be. Even bombing cities to rubble and creating more refugees is not exactly going to win anything. There is talk of the Syria scenario:

Well, good to have them all in one place… https://t.co/SLsoZRVwcq

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) March 11, 2022

Which is horrifying; but there was a government in Syria aligned with Putin. That's not the case in Ukraine. The only scenario that buys Russia stability is withdrawal. And yes, Putin says the USSR survived under sanctions. But as we said at the beginning, Russia has been failing for far longer than the invasion of Ukraine has been going on. And Ukraine is confident now the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train. Gotta do all we can to help them.