About That NYT Poll

 Oh, hell, about polls in general:

Rosenberg said the latest round of presidential polls conflicts with the results of special elections around the country this year, where Democrats have had a string of successes. Political advisers to the president noted that a year ago, polls were suggesting a red wave would give Republicans a major victory in the midterm elections. Instead, Democrats performed much better than the polls predicted.

Fuck polls, follow election returns. Polls are for politicians to fret over. Let’s let ‘em wonder what’s really going on!

But to prove I’m not a crank (even though I play one on Blogger), some news on recent polls:

Today, of course, we get a large sample national poll (over 2,000 interviews) which finds Biden beating Trump outside of the margin of error, 48-44, 4 points. This morning I went to 538 and found that there were 7 (yes 7!!!!) national polls released just last week showing Biden tied or ahead, not trailing.

And about that NYT poll of “battleground” states and the effect of a Trump criminal conviction on the outcome:

AZ - Trump +5 to Biden +5 (10 pt shift) 

GA - Trump +6 to Biden +12 (18 pt shift) 

MI - Trump +5 to Biden +12 (17 pt shift) 

NV - Trump +11 to Biden +12 (23 pt shift) 

PA - Trump +4 to Biden +4 (8 pt shift) 

WI - Biden +2 to Biden +14 (12 pt shift)

Amy Walter and Susan Collins are concerned.