Swords In Scabbards And Paper Tigers ⚔️ 🐅 🇺🇦

Hours later, Putin takes out nuclear card. Each counter-measure sparks his fear of eclipse and threat to personal survival. When #Strongmen feel betrayal by cronies, functionaries, and "the people," might be coming, they become way more irrational. https://t.co/MxHyOKMsC5

— Ruth Ben-Ghiat (@ruthbenghiat) February 27, 2022

That's one way to put it. This is another:

MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert amid tensions with the West over Ukraine.

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) February 27, 2022

Nixon had his "madman" theory. He wanted the USSR to think he was insane enough to start a nuclear war. Is Putin using that playbook, or is he propagandizing his people? Is he trying to scare the world, or is he playing on Russian paranoia about “the West” always being arrayed against Russia? Russia’s foreign minister said Russia was being afflicted by “the Western collective,” and had to invade Ukraine to fight back. Putin faces protests in Moscow and banks collapsing next week. He’s not going to start a nuclear war; but he’s going to do what he can to rally his country.

Here's Putin just now ordering Russia's deterrence (nuclear) forces on "a special regime of duty" in response to foreign sanctions. It's a DEFCON situation. pic.twitter.com/Hhmq5ZAMmO

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 27, 2022

Sanctions clearly won’t work.

My best attempt at translation (pretty good, I think):
"Dear colleagues. You see that Western countries are making not only unfriendly actions in relation to our country in the economic sphere, I mean illegitimate sanctions about which everyone knows - the highest officials."

— Mr. Crispy Fried Green Cheese (@extapdancer) February 27, 2022

6/ ...this is a head fake. A bluff. A shit-test for America and an attempt to terrorize Berlin specifically.

Don't fall for it. Don't let him ratchet you into a panic. Some of you -- many of you -- didn't grow up with the existential threat of nuclear war.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 27, 2022

8/ He was winning the game when he used the first-world capacity of the Russian state -- intelligence, propaganda, financial subversion, political manipulation (eg US 2016 and Brexit, to name just two) -- because Russia is the top of those games.

The rest? Nah.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 27, 2022

This raises certain questions, like:  where is the expected cyber attacks in Ukraine? Right next to: where is the expected Russian military might in Ukraine? Or the intelligence, propaganda, financial subversion, and political manipulation? Yes, that worked in the Y.S. But what does that say about us?

Germany has, today, announced it will raise its defense budget above 2% of GDP; for the first time since WWII.

Trump couldn’t do that. Putin, and Biden rallying NATO (Trump actively worked to undermine NATO), did that. Putin is left with saber rattling. And in part it’s because he’s shown the world, including his country, that the Russian military is a paper tiger.

As is Putin.

Like US DEFCON levels, Russia has a number of readiness levels:
1. CONSTANT
2. ELEVATED
3. MILITARY DANGER
4. FULL

Putin ordered nuclear forces to ELEVATED level today. Concerning but not cause for panic yet

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 27, 2022

I will let you know. For now, this is meant for a domestic audience in Russia as much as for anyone else. https://t.co/gwaIo9u3gR

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 27, 2022