Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Defeat from the jaws of victory

Got no comment on who the "likely nominee" will be (WAY too early to make that call.  Can we wait until people start voting, huh?).  But the faction of voters not on Twitter is actually the majority of voters.  Case in point:

In a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted Friday night and Saturday, just 11% of Americans said they’d heard a lot about Carroll’s allegations. About half those polled, 53%, hadn’t heard anything at all. (Because survey respondents tend to be more politically engaged, these numbers are, if anything, probably a little high.) 

We can bewail such ignorance later.  Let the data sink in:  most people aren't paying attention to whatever outrages Twitter last.  The internet is an outrage machine:  we all run to it every morning to find out what that outrage du jour is; and then on to the outrages of the morning, the afternoon, the hour, etc.

Most of America doesn't live this way.  Which is to say most of the Democratic primary voters probably aren't all that aware of "the performative wokeness of certain factions of the left," either.  And may not be as obsessed with "electability" as the pundits and journalists are.  But the simple fact is, the first debate among the Democratic wannabes is tonight.  The first vote on those wannabes is on February 3, 2020.  Until then, nobody really knows anything and the only thing that will shake out potentials is money.  Maybe.  Right now, Bernie's campaign is "sinking" because other campaigns are rising.  Remember when Beto was the hot ticket?  And Mayor Pete?

Everybody's gonna get their 15 minutes in the next 7 months, even Gabbard and Klobuchar and that guy from...wherever.  Some of them will probably last until well into the next year.  And frankly, the enthusiasm for running proves how terribly weak an opponent Donald Trump is.  He's got the incumbency, he's got the "bully pulpit," he's got the executive branch at this fingertips:  and yet nobody sees him as formidable.  Not formidable enough not to add to the list of candidates now so long nobody can really remember them all.  In the meantime, Digby said it so I don't have to:  we don't need advice from Republicans on how to lose a Presidential election.  The facts of 2016 are:  Hillary was a spectacularly bad campaigner; and too many voters are aptly summed up by the description in this tweet:

But mostly:  Hillary was a terrible campaigner.  As bad as Dukakis or Kerry or Gore.  If nothing else, the winnowing process this time should produce someone who can actually appeal to voters (and I'm not forgetting Biden's terrible track record on that score.  I don't think he survives to next summer, myself.), not just take the nomination because no one else would try (and no, Bernie was never a Democrat, and he isn't now).

Really, I'm convinced political prognostications and analysis mostly make people stupid; and incapable of making an argument that doesn't implode by its own internal logic (or lack thereof).

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