Monday, April 20, 2020

Maybe You Have To Be From Texas


To understand this, but oil dropping to $3 bbl is not a good thing.

WTI Crude ended the day trading at -$35.00 a bbl.  Oil storage facilities were literally paying shippers to remove the oil from their tanks so they could take in the oil coming from the fields.  Because no one is buying oil for cars, planes, trucks, etc.

You may curse "Big Oil" and think this is their comeuppance.  Having lived in Texas most of my life, I can tell you that "Big Oil" is primarily a huge number of small companies and even larger number of individual employees.  The oil companies you are familiar with do drilling and exploring, but most of their product comes from small suppliers, because Big Oil is marketing more than anything else.  And besides, its hires small companies to do all that drilling and transporting.  Big Oil is largely finance and marketing.  They won't suffer from this before small companies and cities full of individuals do.  Texas went through this in the '80's, and it was supremely ugly.  Now much of the American West is going to go through it (Colorado is experiencing a population boom.  Care to guess why?  I'll give you three, the first two don't count.  Colorado is not alone.).

The unemployment problem just got one helluva lot worse.  I don't even know what -$35.00 bbl WTI crude means.  Nobody does.  It's never happened before.  Before you start cheering cheap gas, think of how many more people will be unemployed and WON'T be going back to work when the country "re-opens."

This isn't bad; this is potentially apocalyptic.  Since it's not the DJIA, don't expect Trump to begin to wrap his tiny head around it.

Hell, I can barely take it in.  Seeing tweets about "Shut in the wells!"  Sure, and put all those people out of work, too.  And the people they buy food and clothing from?  And pay rent to?  The ripple effect here is huge, and as I way, won't start to end when stay-at-home orders do.


That's not gonna do anything at all.  Oil is a commodity, not a product.  Saudi Arabia sells on the global market, not to the gas station near you.

If there's a reason people aren't laid off by whole states by tonight, that will be it.  Cold comfort, however.

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