Also, a reminder that during the final weeks of that campaign Romney actually took the lead in the RCP average for a bit, and Obama's lead on election day was 0.7%.
— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) May 8, 2024
Obama won the popular vote by 3.9%.
Six months to go, folks. https://t.co/tbGBKD4QOi
Polls don’t matter. Elections matter. Part of Trump’s schtick is our excessive reliance on polls. Part of Trump’s fraud claims is that polls show he was winning. Selected polls?When even Newsmax notices it... https://t.co/zEjKq2Bb3K
— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) May 8, 2024
They’re all “selected polls.”
Watch the donut, not the hole. 🍩
We have the unheard of presidential race of two presidents competing for a second term. There are no unknowns this race. A part of me understood when Trump ran against Hillary, that there were people that voted for Trump because they were just sick of both parties, he was the anti-politician. By the end of his term is class clear who he was, and sadly even more people showed up to vote for him. Thankfully more people showed up (in the handful of swing states) to vote for Biden. It's hard to believe there is any significant number of undecided voters, both Trump and Biden have shown how they will govern. The Haley vote in the Republican primary may mean everything or it may mean nothing. The answer to that question as of today is basically unknowable. Some of that Haley vote will tern around and vote for Trump because they will never vote for a Democrat. Any number of Republican critics of Trump have already made that clear. The governor of New Hampshire, Sununu has regularly criticized Trump, and had come out and said he will vote for Trump over Biden even if Trump is convicted of all his crimes. Some Haley voters just won't vote. They can't vote for Trump but they certainly aren't going to vote for Biden, a Democrat. They are a -1 for Trump. I hope they don't show up to vote at all, because they are likely to vote Republican on the down ticket races. Then there are the Haley voters that previously voted Republican buy will cast a vote for Biden. I don't think there are many of these folks at all.
ReplyDeleteSo polling firms, which have proven themselves deficient, are supposed to 6 months out parse all these groups and come to a conclusion? Even the voters in these groups are probably fluid. What they feel today won't be how they will feel in November. In the end this will all come down to turn out in those few states. Can the Democrats get their regular voters out, and encourage enough soft Democrat voters to show up. There may be a few conquests with good policy (pro-choice, student loan relief, pro-LGBTQ+ community) that might make the difference in a razor close election. None of this will be known until after all the votes are cast. So let's ignore the polls and work hard for people we want to lead us.