Putin thought he’d get away with it. Maybe because the “West” is “decadent.” Russia has been described as a gas company with an army. Europe needs Russian gas. Europe wouldn’t risk access to Russian gas over Ukraine, which isn’t properly Europe (just as Russia is/isn’t)."Niinisto is not optimistic. He had noticed a change in the Russian. “His state of mind, the deciding, decisiveness — that is clearly different,” Niinisto said. He believed Putin felt he had to seize on “the momentum he has now.”" @jasondhorowitz https://t.co/ki49ZAHiSE
— Catherine Belton (@CatherineBelton) February 13, 2022
And then Biden said an invasion would end the new pipeline that bypasses Ukraine.
Pause here to note most of the gas transfer infrastructure from Russia to Europe runs through Ukraine. The newest pipeline was part of a plan.
Russians reportedly have no appetite for war, no patriotic interest in body bags. Putin is in charge largely because he keeps the Russian oligarchs happy. They have lots of assets in Europe and the U.S. Put these three negatives together (unpopular war, collapse of gas trade, economic sanctions on the Russian rich and powerful), and suddenly invading Ukraine is not such a good idea. Putin stands to lose much more than he wins.
A military operation is a huge machine which, once started, is hard to stop, harder to reverse. Does Putin want to invade anymore? I think he’s at least reconsidering it. Will he invade? I think he’s looking for a face (and ass) saving way not to. He is almost permanently in charge of Russia; but he’s not the Tsar, with centuries of family history of rule behind him. If he screws himself with the people and the powerful, invading Ukraine will not be worth it.
Of course, my analysis is worth what you paid for it.
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