Sunday, March 24, 2024

“Our Buildings”

He means the ones with the family name on them, due to licensing agreements. Even if New York took a building, it wouldn’t affect the tenants.

It would only hurt Eric and Donny, Jr., and Daddy.
Trump doesn’t own enough in New York to make a down payment on the judgment. And I don’t think Florida homestead law protects a commercial property like MAL (I’m fairly sure it wouldn’t in Texas). Trump is sweating bullets they’ll come to Florida, sooner or later.

Saturday, March 23, 2024

A Helluva Town

The simple fact is, what everyone thinks they know about what Trump owns, is based on what Trump says; or just wants you to think.

Trump International Hotel and Tower 

“What Trump does own here, according to the New York Times, are the parking garage, the valet booth, room-service kitchens, lobby bathrooms, a restaurant space, and one unit."

Trump Tower 

FoxNews and MAGA feverishly imagines a padlock on the whole building. Even if Trump owned it that wouldn’t make sense. New York would simply step in as the landlord, not as a demolition company.  But the fact is, most of it doesn’t belong to Trump. “The Trump Organization owns the retail and commercial portions of the building and Trump owns a triplex apartment here."

The Trump Building (40 Wall Street)

Trump doesn’t own the building. He only has “Rather, he owns the “ground lease” to the 72-story building, which requires him to pay rent to the landowners — the obscure but wealthy Hinneberg family of Germany."

1290 Avenue of the Americas 

Vornado owns the building. Trump owns a 33% share he can’t divest until 2044.

Trump Park Avenue 

23 apartments (maybe) in a 32 story building.

Niketown

A large single tenant commercial space. Trump pays the ground lease for it.

Trump Parc and Trump Parc East 

Trump owns a few units.

Trump Plaza 

Trump owns two units.

Trump World Tower 

The Trump Organization is the building management. Trump has no ownership interest. This is also true for the Mayfair, which The Trump Organization lists in its portfolio.

The Former Trump Palace; the former Trump Place; the former Trump SoHo; the former Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point:

All of these properties have one thing in common: Trump has no ownership interest in any of them.

His real estate empire in New York City, at least, is a myth. His departure for Florida wasn’t abandonment at all; it was inevitable, even logical. If Letitia James wants to seize whole buildings, she’ll have to look outside NYC.







Trump Doesn’t Need Campaign Funds

He has access to Twitter; and the crack team at RNC Research. Who seem to think we all wake up to a new world everyday, and everything on the internet is here today and gone tomorrow.

My expert analysis is that Trump wins. 

The Political Genius Of Donald Trump Is Amazing To Behold

Even Mitch McConnell admitted recently that ACA is here to stay.

🎱

I’m quite sure that’s why Trump changed his position on TikTok.  But the value of Truth Social is very much dependent on taking Trump’s hype seriously. Something too many people continue to do.
The price of shares in Digital World Acquisition Corp. closed trading Friday nearly 14% lower than their opening price after the shell company's shareholders approved a merger with the social media company owned by former President Donald Trump. 
DWAC had opened the trading day at $44.20 per share, but quickly tumbled on the heels of the vote.
The market agrees with Michael Cohen:
"I understand it has like 15 million users on it," he elaborated. "Compare that to somebody like Taylor Swift who has 120 million followers — 120 million. What is the profitability that they are making the statement that it is worth not just into the millions or the hundreds of millions, but into the billions of dollars? I don't buy it either." 
"They are trying to hype up the stock the same way they would do it for Trump Mortgage, Trump University, Trump Vodka, Trump Steaks, Trump this or Trump that — it's not worth anything " he added. "There is no profitability and there is no future in sight for that profitability either. I mean, who wants to go on to Truth Social? It is nonsense and I do not think that anybody is going to take this -- the stock as an advance for cash."

CNN is reporting, "Outside of his MAGA movement, though, the social media site is struggling to find a wider audience. It is hemorrhaging users, and its traffic has plummeted. There were roughly 860,000 accounts active on the site as of November – a tiny blip compared with more mainstream platforms." 
The report notes that after three years of existence, Truth Social lacks appeal to new users with the app "not among the 100 most downloaded social media applications in the Apple App store." 
With CNN reporting, "Trump Media’s management warned last year that the company was at risk of insolvency without a merger, and most analysts are skeptical of its current valuation above $6 billion," Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida indicated he was less than impressed. 
"It’s grossly overvalued. It qualifies as a meme stock for which the price is divorced from fundamental value,” he explained. As noted, the platform will live or die with Trump's fortunes and participation. 
According to Josephine Lukito of the University of Texas at Austin, "Truth Social’s clout is driven very much if not entirely by Donald Trump’s popularity. Without him, I don’t think there’s a viable path forward for it.”
That $3 billion Trump now has? It’s in paper only, and it lost value yesterday. Unless Trump can pump up the platform, its fortunes depend entirely on his fortune. And that’s not a good thing.

I’m Old Enough To Remember

...when Michael Steele was hired by NBC (or CNN, or MSNBC; anyway, he has a show on MSNBC now. I think.), and he was the radical, conservative GOP voice and former “insider” always fiercely defending the GOP.

And when the Rev. Al Sharpton was a leftist radical bomb-thrower, and now he’s buddies with Joe Scarborough, who isn’t the disciple of Newt Gingrich Joe once was.

Not to carry any water for Romney McDaniel, but, geez: is the GOP only going to get worse? πŸ˜’ 

A Little Too Ironic

I’ve mentioned before (you probably don’t remember) how much culture matters to Protestantism. It’s a tricky position to make clear because Irish culture shaped Irish Christianity and saved civilization (says Thomas Cahill, who has a point), and certainly Roman Catholicism was/is shaped by culture. But the decline of Catholic alliance with monarchies has separated Rome from the world in ways that first made Catholics defy the world (persistence of the Latin Mass, for example), but more recently stand athwart the world while not condemning it as the world, while not condemning it as corrupt per se.

That latter posture is peculiarly Protestant, so much so it is mistakenly taken as being fundamentally Protestant. It isn’t, at all; and that’s the point. But in the struggle of Christianity to be in the world but not of the world, a struggle rooted in the books of the New Testament themselves, Protestantism is peculiarly shaped by culture, if only because it doesn’t have a single hierarchy to set the boundaries and the guidelines. Protestants set their own standards for what is “correct” in their worship and their practice, which is why there are so many flavors of Protestantism. The church I pastored told the story of how that congregation broke apart over the subject of buying carpet for the sanctuary. A splinter group left, went down the street (literally), and started a new church, supposedly sans sanctuary carpeting. Neither church is the church it was anymore.

When I grew up, everyone went to church. Most people couldn’t really tell you why: it was just what you did. Most of the people in my congregation as a pastor were old people (my age now, but this was 25 years ago) who came to church out of lifelong habit. My parents finally stopped going to their church. Too much had changed in the world; too many of their friends had moved; moved on; changed churches (in a world that emphasizes individual choice, why not? “Cafeteria Catholics” got nothin’ on Cafeteria Protestants). It was never their church so much as it was their congregation; and it wasn’t, anymore. I know the feeling. I stopped regularly attending services (not for the first time in my life) about 20 years ago, now. I doubt I’ll ever look for a church now.

Church attendance overall is in decline. But that’s the nature of Protestantism. And oddly enough, Russell Moore recognizes that without recognizing it at all. Because his argument is that, once, church (as he regards it, i.e., conservative Southern Baptist Protestantism) set the standard of virtue for the world; but now the world sets the standard for the church. I’m not saying he’s wrong; but I don’t think he understands the importance of what he’s saying.
As Graham says, a raunchy “boobs-and-booze ethos has elbowed its way into the conservative power class, accelerated by the rise of Donald J. Trump, the declining influence of traditional religious institutions and a shifting media landscape increasingly dominated by the looser standards of online culture.” (This article you are reading right now represents something of this shift, as I spent upward of 15 minutes pondering how to quote Graham’s article without using the word boobs.) 
Graham’s analysis is important for American Christians precisely because the shift she describes is not something “out there” in the culture but is instead driven specifically by the very same white evangelical subculture that once insisted that personal character—virtue, to use a now distant-sounding word the American founders knew well—matters.
The appeal to the “Founders” is of a piece with my argument, if only because few of those “Founders” (who are they, anyway?) would agree with Moore’s definition of “virtue.” They were practical men who made their peace with slavery for the sake of a national government. I’m unclear how “virtuous” that was.*

I think he’s right, this shift isn’t “out there” in the culture; but that’s largely because the culture isn’t “out there” for the church he describes. If anything, that church controlled the culture, until it didn’t. And in losing that control, that church lost its claim to virtue, too. 

The town I grew up in was dominated, culturally and demographically, by Southern Baptists. It was the county seat of a “dry” county. The hoariest joke in town was that the only time two Baptists wouldn’t speak to each other in public was when they met in the liquor store just across the county line. My father’s favorite joke was how you kept a Baptist from drinking beer all the beer when you’re out fishing: bring along another Baptist.

Baptist virtues were a flexible, and cultural, matter. And don’t get me started on the works v. faith issue again. Baptists were far more interested in God’s blessings for them than in their blessings for others. That was a stalwart of American Protestantism, too; so again, culture matters far more than the gospels. 
But Moore’s argument rests, not on how Baptists should be a light in the world, but on how Baptists ultimately follow the world. The world (culture) changed, and that changed Baptists, is his thesis.  And he’s not wrong; but he doesn’t see what that says about the fundamentals (!) of Protestantism.

Isn’t it ironic? Don’t you think? πŸ€” 


*For example:
the midst of the late-1990s Clinton scandal, a group of scholars issued a “Declaration Concerning Religion, Ethics, and the Crisis in the Clinton Presidency,” which stated:
We are aware that certain moral qualities are central to the survival of our political system, among which are truthfulness, integrity, respect for the law, respect for the dignity of others, adherence to the constitutional process, and a willingness to avoid the abuse of power. We reject the premise that violations of these ethical standards should be excused so long as a leader remains loyal to a particular political agenda and the nation is blessed by a strong economy.
Those words seem far more distant than a Tocqueville quote now.
Moore’s own words are already distant from his point. “Virtue” is in the eye of the beholder, and a matter of whose ox is being gored.

Friday, March 22, 2024

That Explains His Supporters

He said, 'You know, my father always said, 'You never personally guarantee any loans.' And I made a mistake. I personally guaranteed too much money in the early 1990s. I didn't think it would catch up with me. And it did. And I learned my lesson. I would never personally guarantee a loan after that.'" 
"I later found out he was lying to me in that very moment," he said. "I didn't know it, but it turned out he had personally guaranteed some of the loans on the new building he was developing in Chicago." 
"So, he goes through these searing moments where he almost loses everything he can and has, and he says: 'I learned these lessons; I should've listened to my father.' Lo and behold, he is doing the same thing." 
O'Brien said it's a long pattern. 
"Now here we are in 2024 and he is about to get exposed," he said. "It is going to be a slow grind. I don't think there's going to be a lot of drama on Monday." 
"But the process of opening the kimono and discovering indeed Donald Trump has no financial clothing, at least not the kind of financial clothing he claims he's had, begins." 
So even if Trump fails to remit the incredible amount that is being asked of him, O'Brien believes the damage has been done to break through the real estate tycoon's Teflon veneer. 
"It is a demonstration he doesn't learn his lessons," said O'Brien. "He does not anticipate problems properly." 
"He doesn't do it because he is a juvenile delinquent; he lacks the maturity, wisdom, and strategic insight of an adult."

But He Couldn’t Be Saying That Because…?

I’m a lawyer and extensively trained in textual interpretation as well as the finer points of exegesis, and even I know “appears to be saying” is a bizarrely euphemistic and circumlocutory way of saying “I can’t say he said what he obviously said because I must represent ‘objectivity.’”

Whatever the hell that really is.


Republicans As Looney Tunes Characters

Newt Gingrich lost the speakership after shutting down the government. He was then voted out. He is the father of the hyper partisanship of our current politics. He deserves to be treated as a political pundit as he was treated by the House and the voters of his district: discarded like a used Kleenex. Rich people want to be the Ruling Class. Funny he didn’t mention France, because France actually jailed an ex-President. O’Leary probably likes to visit there, and hasn’t been to Cuba or Venezuela in like…ever. If anyone is surprised, please pay more attention. Curiously, I don’t feel intimidated by Trump’s legal problems. I would also point out the four juries won’t be listening to Jesse’s crackpot arguments in trial. Do you mean the same guy whinging this morning about how unfair it was the justice system applies to him, too? The same guy who is so far below Biden in campaign cash he has to look up to see bottom? The guy who wants donors to give to the RNC so he can pay his lawyers? That guy is a “political immortal”? Are you living in a Looney Tunes cartoon? Are you imagining a cartoonishly large padlock and huge lengths of giant chains? Do you understand how any of this works? Again: do you think AG James will fly to Florida and throw her arms around MAL for the cameras? Like a cartoon character?

There Are No Accidents

Or because “right now” is the “right time.” There are ways to say “Fuck you.” Ken Buck did it to Lauren Boebert. Mike Gallagher is doing it to the House GOP.

😈

Redux

With or without the bond, Trump is so far behind in campaign fundraising already his election is highly unlikely. What money he does raise will go to lawyers, again with or without that bond. He faces four criminal cases; one goes to trial shortly, the other perhaps by August, a third possibly before November. How much money can Trump raise, and where is he going to spend it? The first question can’t be answered; the answer to the second is obvious to everyone.

The focus on the bond is Trump’s obsession. Why should anyone else share it? Stopping that judgment won’t get him elected. It won’t fund his campaign. Paying for that bond would be an investment. An investment in the next POTUS.

What assurance does anyone have that will be Trump? And how does paying the bond for this case advance that goal? If he’s convicted in New York next month, does he go to jail? Or pay more fines? What are the odds America elects its first convicted felon, especially if the case returns to Chutkan’s court before November, or Willis starts her trial this summer?

Sounds like a worthless investment to me.

Am I Better Off Than I Was Four Years Ago?

He did it because old people vote! πŸ—³️ 

Damn you, Joe Biden!!!

Money For Nuthin’

According to a report from CNBC, stock for the company which will be listed as DJT starting next week, began the day at $44.20 before taking a quick nosedive to below $38, before a bounceback to 3.5 percent below opening. 
The former president was expected to see a $3 billion windfall after the merger was completed but, by the time he is able to sell any portion of his stock, that dollar figure could change radically downward as other investors cash out.
Trump msy have a six month restriction on selling his stock, and even if he does cash out tomorrow his sale will cause the stock to lose value. 

And he’ll still insist he has to spend it on his campaign.

And Judge Engoron is still watching. The State of New York would be just as happy to get cash.πŸ’° 

11% of sales are short; investors who expect the value to fall further sooner than later. This ain’t Tesla, you know.

“It’s Complicated”

But if you set aside the people dropping like flies and trying to ingest household cleansers because Trump suggested it, and the near-economic collapse, and the record employment today, are we really better off than we were?

It’s complicated.

Trump Math

 Trump said in a deposition that he had $400 million in cash on hand.

Now he says he has $500 million.

His lawyers say he doesn’t have the money:

His lawyers clarified that statement to me this morning, saying Trump was referring to the cash he has made through running his business, which he has disclosed on his campaign forms," Scannell told host Jim Acosta. "But that's not the actual amount of cash that he currently has on hand."
Trump says he needs the money for his campaign. But a court didn’t order him to run for President. It did order him to pay damages.

I do like the idea he had $400 million on hand, ready to spend, and now, despite posting $96 million in bonds for two appeals, he has $500 million in cash, ready to spend. Is he really the head of a drug cartel?

Anyway, you can’t make him pay the judgment because that’s unfair. And he’s broke. But no, he’s rich! He’s really, really rich!πŸ€‘ 

But it’s his money and you can’t have it! Unfair! Unfair!!

And please send him money. He’s doing this for you.

ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!!

Besides, don’t Presidents have absolute immunity?

Dems In Disarray

Or: fuck Reagan's "11th Commandment" They know we can hear them, right?

Well…

That seems very likely.
The judge who handed down a $464 million judgment against Donald Trump, his company and co-defendants in a civil fraud case has ordered the Trump Organization to keep the court closely informed about any efforts to secure a bond ahead of Monday’s deadline. 
New York state Judge Arthur Engoron said Thursday that Trump's company needs to provide details to a court-appointed monitor about attempts to obtain a bond that would stop authorities from collecting on the judgment while it appeals last month's ruling. The monitor, former federal Judge Barbara Jones, is to report regularly to Engoron.

“Communism In America”

The shade of Roy Cohn still haunts Trump’s mind. 

This is the ranting of every individual I ever knew who lost a lawsuit (company defendants tended to think about what account was going to write the check). 

And yes, he complained that he’d have to sell properties at a “fire sale” to pay the judgment, and now he says he has the money, but he needs it for his campaign. There is no evidence Trump has ever spent a dime of his own money on his campaign.

But he’s got the money; because he can’t admit he’s broke, even though that’s what his lawyers told the court.

It’s not just the same speech Trump keeps giving. This case is the only new thing he’s talked about since January 6, 2021.

Thursday, March 21, 2024

πŸŽ‚

So, two options here:

1) Can Trump get his hands on the money by Monday? If he does, can New York challenge the funding of the bond on the grounds the monies were illegally obtained? I know bugger all about New York law, but I can’t imagine the court would be comfortable with accepting provably illegally obtained funds.

It would be interesting.

2) If Trump throws this Hail Mary, what does he campaign on? He’s already cancelled a rally in Arizona because he was low on funds. It’s also clear the money that goes to the RNC now goes to Trump’s pockets. Do not pass “GO,” do not collect $200.00.  How long will it take to replenish their coffers? Will they ever? Trump is going down, and more important than the election now is his legal and fiscal survival. The two are inextricably intertwined. He’s burning up money for appeals and trials. He’s losing control of more of his own money. He can’t raise enough money to pay for a $500 million bond, and finance three appeals and three criminal cases.

And it doesn’t matter when the other three go to trial. Trump can’t finance a campaign and his legal challenges. The more he tries, the more donors will think twice. Small donors can’t give him what he needs. Large donors don’t want to pay his lawyers. And Presidential campaigns run on money. But Trump needs all the money just to save himself.  In fact, you have to wonder if Trump cares that much about the election, which he can’t control; or his immediate financial and criminal problems, which he can try to control. Winning the presidency may solve his criminal problems, but it won’t touch his financial woes. He needs the campaign for the grift. But he doesn’t need the donations for the campaign. Not when he has so many needs so much closer to home.

The recipe for GOP disaster is almost perfectly baked.

See?

WIDESPREAD PANIC!!!

Chaos:
Hundreds of migrants stormed across the border into El Paso, Texas, this morning, overwhelming Texas National Guard soldiers as they breached razor-wire barricades in a bid to push further into the United States. 
The migrants breached the National Guard’s concertina wire by covering it with clothing and cardboard. Upon entering U.S. territory, border agents loaded them into vehicles and transported them to a processing center.
Or...not.

My favorite part is how the low-tech concertina wire was defeated by even lower tech materials. And where the Texas National Guard failed (at a job they shouldn’t have been asked to do. They aren’t trained for it and don’t have the authority needed), the Border Patrol didn’t.

“Whole sight; or all the rest is desolation.”—John Fowles

What Are You Giving For?

Donald Trump’s new joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut, according to a fundraising invitation obtained by The Associated Press. 
The unorthodox diversion of funds to the Save America PAC makes it more likely that Republican donors could see their money go to Trump’s lawyers, who have received at least $76 million over the last two years to defend him against four felony indictments and multiple civil cases. Some Republicans are already troubled that Trump’s takeover of the RNC could shortchange the cash-strapped party. 
Trump has invited high-dollar donors to Palm Beach, Florida, for an April 6 fundraiser that comes as his fundraising is well behind President Joe Biden and national Democrats. The invitation’s fine print says donations to the Trump 47 Committee will first be used to give the maximum amount allowed under federal law to Trump’s campaign. Anything left over from the donation next goes toward a maximum contribution to Save America, and then anything left from there goes to the RNC and then to state political parties.
Is there also a recurring automatic payment in that fine print?

Delays Are Expensive

Trump’s strategy is a two-edged sword. Appeals cost money. Delays cost money.

Trump is spending other people’s money. That’s going to end eventually. Then what?

Welcome To The Legal System

Sucks to be you. Too bad, so sad. Next time put on a better defense. Better yet, don’t make fraud your business plan.

We all play by the same rules. You just thought you didn’t have to. Maybe if you’d just gotten over Obama calling your name at the Correspondents Dinner.

But you didn’t.

So it goes.

“History to the defeated may say ‘Alas,’
but cannot help or pardon.” —W.H. Auden 

Bankruptcy Lite

The Banality Of Evil

It finally occurs to me that Comer is asking Biden to waive his 5th Amendment rights. Aside from the separation of powers issue. The 5th Amendment issue is actually more fundamental. And to use it (you know he will) to justify claims that Biden is hiding something Comer could never uncover…

The whole purpose of MAGA has become tossing the Constitution into a shredder.

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Legal Briefs

"A source close to the Trump family said Trump’s defense team is gaming out its options, including ways Trump could appeal Engoron's ruling without having to put the bond up and what would happen if they can’t secure the required sum. There’s also the belief that seizing Trump’s assets or liquidating them at 'fire sale' prices, as Trump has warned, could prove to be rocket fuel for his campaign," said the report. "'They’re looking to appeal the actual requirements to have to put up this amount of money to appeal and then, obviously, the appeal itself on grounds it’s a violation of the Eighth Amendment,' the source said. 'They have to figure all those machinations out.'"
The “rocket fuel” argument is dumb, because it will only appeal to voters who already support Trump. Losing Trump Tower or Bedford is not going to win Trump any new sympathy.

It’s of a piece with the Eighth Amendment shout out.
The Eighth Amendment argument is that the damages are excessive. It’s a backstop occasionally used to reduce punitive damages, but no such damages were awarded here. The only argument can be Trump’s rights are violated by the appeal bond itself (or, I guess, the judgment). The legal problem is in the AG’s brief. If this bond is not unprecedented (and I don’t think it is, but I don’t have the case citations), then the Eighth Amendment argument is almost impossible to make. It’s pretty much in line with the PRA argument Trump is making in Florida (which only Loose Cannon is dumb enough to fall for. Twice. Honestly, the woman has no business being on a traffic court bench. But I digress…). Not, IOW, a winning position.

Now let’s consider bankruptcy:
The outlet noted that the bankruptcy could give Trump a reprieve as it would delay for months and possibly years his mandate to pay back the substantial damages imposed by Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron mid-February that has accrued interest by $100,000 each day. 
Trump's campaign spokesman said: “This is a motion to stay the unjust, unconstitutional, un-American judgment from New York Judge Arthur Engoron in a political Witch Hunt brought by a corrupt Attorney General. A bond of this size would be an abuse of the law, contradict bedrock principals of our Republic, and fundamentally undermine the rule of law in New York." 
Bankruptcy would also reportedly in a federal judge to help remit and make good all of Trump's creditors and give the GOP presumptive nominee bandwidth to put his energies toward stumping to win back the White House.
I left that middle paragraph in because it is the political argument Trump thinks he gets to make if James starts seizing his buildings.

The other paragraphs are sheer gibberish. Bankruptcy stays all proceedings in which the bankrupt is involved, and that includes appeals. The bankruptcy court puts a trustee in place who controls all of Trump’s property and money. The proper analysis gets tricky here, because Trump and his sons and his businesses were sued and the liability apportioned among them. In order to stay the execution of the judgment, Trump would have to file bankruptcy personally, and for all the entities in the suit. It would be the only way to protect his properties from seizure.  So the price of not paying the judgment is a Trustee who is the court monitor on steroids, taking over and approving everything Trump’s businesses do, and he does.

But that would last only as long as the bankruptcy judge allowed. Trump would be forced to divest his assets, and pay off his creditors. That may delay the judgment execution, but it won’t eliminate it. 

And Trump won’t have any “bandwidth.” He won’t be able to pay his lawyers without court approval. He can’t raise money and spend it on his lawyers or for any other reason without court approval. Violating campaign finance laws could suddenly become a very real problem, too. Trump won’t be able to treat campaign donations or RNC funds as his piggy bank without making those monies part of the bankruptcy estate, and so the property of his creditors, including the State of New York.

Bankruptcy means all of your property becomes your creditors’ property. The bankruptcy court could, for example, force the sale of Trump Tower to pay off the creditors. Or Bedminster; or even MAL. Nothing Trump could do about it, except spend more money on more lawyers. He wouldn’t be released from his burdens, they would increase.

And the simple truth is, the majority of Chapter 11 reorganizations end in Chapter 7 liquidation. Bankruptcy is not an escape clause for Trump. It’s a death sentence.
When she was asked about the possibility that her old boss and former leader of the free world might opt to declare Chapter 11 protection and give up some of his properties (save for three that he likely won't ever relinquish), Grisham started ticking off some of the talking points if that were to happen
Just a small point of clarification. Trump, individually, and his businesses, are responsible for the fraud judgment. If he files bankruptcy, they all have to go with him. And being bankrupt is kind of like being pregnant; you can’t do it a little bit. Trump can’t decide which properties go in and which stay out; and what happens to them is up to the court, not the petitioner.

Trump has put his companies into bankruptcy before. He knows how it works. Odds are he’ll never do it.

Jasmine Crockett Is My Hero

And a shout out to Jared Moskowitz: I really had no idea Bobulinski was such a jackass.

I Think We Just Found Out Why Chubb Won’t Float Another Bond

How many Trump properties are similarly situated? And what is Trump’s real net worth?

Maybe that’s why he’s panicking.

This could also simply mean the AG has to take a lot of property in order to satisfy the judgment. Nobody said one building would be enough.

And another detail on that AG response to Trump’s plea for special treatment:
Funny how it comes back to the same cast of characters, huh? Reminds you this judgment is for fraud.

Better Than Four Years Ago?

Easy to forget how completely impotent and helpless he was. And since he’s never shied away from antisemitism, are we better off now? Moses Mike only wants to lead the right people.

“Don’t Worry About The Votes”

Now I see why reports were Sherrod Brown got the opponent he wanted.

😱 Run In Circles! Scream And Shout! πŸ™€

"KEEP YOUR FILTHY HANDS OFF TRUMP TOWER!" reads a fundraising email sent to supporters. "Insane radical Democrat AG Letitia James wants to SEIZE my properties in New York. THIS INCLUDES THE ICONIC TRUMP TOWER!"
"Democrats think this will intimidate me," the message adds. "They think that if they take my cash to stifle my campaign, that I'll give up! Here's one thing they don't know: WE WILL NEVER SURRENDER!"
First, it’s an indictment of campaign finance law that Trump can conflate funds raised for a campaign with funds required to pay a judgment. But it’s also so much πŸ‚ πŸ’©, because he’s supposed to be a billionaire, but he’s never self-financed his campaigns, and any money he raises for a campaign can’t be used (ideally, but…) for paying legal judgments.

Second, I think we can put to rest the idea a foreign power sugar daddy is coming. We already know the basic terms if the Chubb bond, and not because Chubb issued a press release. The whole point of the foreign sugar daddy scenario is to get control of Trump when he’s back in office. But if your massive donation is revealed, it’s rather a big hole in that boat, isn’t it? And how do you keep a huge bailout like that a secret? Even the allegations alone are enough, whether they point to the responsible party or not. Might as well just tie the anchor around Trump’s neck yourself.

Third:
The fundraising pitch accuses President Joe Biden of coordinating the civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions against Trump, accusing him of "election interference," and calls on a million supporters to donate money to his campaign.
Sure, that’ll work. If 1 million people give a minimum of $550 each, Trump can pay the bond himself. 

Except those are campaign donations, and the appellate court might look askance at that. Aside from the fact there’s no chance of it happening.

CNN was right: Trump is in panic mode.


Getting Under The Hood

Sureties may have refused to accept defendants’ specific holdings as collateral because using Mr. Trump’s real estate will generally need 'a property appraisal,'" writes prosecutor Dennis Fan, "and his holdings are not nearly as valuable as defendants claim."
The NYAG also doesn’t take Trump’s claims at face value. To determine if Trump is entitled to relief, they point out it needs to be established whether Trump couldn’t get a bond, or couldn’t get it on terms he’d agree to.

Final judgement are final. And presumptively enforceable. Trump doesn’t get to negotiate this. The State, in fact, will probably seize and hold the property while the appeals play out, in case the judgment is reversed or reduced.

Other reports indicate Trump thinks the Supreme Court will ultimately bail him out. By that time he’ll be in a jail cell and broke. I also can’t imagine what issue raised by this case would engage the Supremes. If it’s even the same court now that it may be then. Appeals are all about delays, and that won’t work in Trump’s favor this time.
When Holmes asked the former president's allies about what the Trump campaign team was working on other than trying to find the bond, she received a startling reply: "Nothing." 
"Everybody is really fixated, really upset, about how to do this bond," Holmes said. "This is something that they are very panicked about."
What’s that line about how a looming gallows tends to focus the mind? Trump imagining he can win this case in the Supreme Court is like the man who can’t imagine his own death. If this case is tied up in appeals for years, with his property either under liens for a bond, or held by the State of New York: who does business with Trump? And he’ll probably be in jail, which also kills his business future. He won’t be able to grift for dollars to pay the lawyers (and when the money dries up, they start leaving). He has no right to counsel on the civil appeals. If he want to pursue those to the bitter end, that’s gonna cost him. Trump can’t seemingly imagine that future. But it’s coming at him just the same.

LET LEV SPEAK! πŸ—£️

Comer is going to be so glad he held this hearing. Of course they did. Of course they did. We decide, then we report! In Russia, evidence push you! He means like the witnesses the committee has come up with. When the raptors got loose? Or when the T Rex ate the bathroom?🚽  "IT WAS A PERFECT PHONE CALL!” But was it a crime? No, I’m serious: was it? Because that’s not really the best standard of measure here. Don’t think it can be said often enough. And then the crashing, and the burning. And the walls come tumbling down. And the faceplanting.

Who’da Thunk It?

The primary problem is, nobody wants to take real estate as collateral (too hard to sell, too risky in terms of value, too costly to maintain until the price is right). And Trump can’t sell it off fast enough for cash, because it would be a forced sale, and that’s when prices drop.

😈
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Who Doesn’t Enjoy A Good Bloodbath?

And the problem with voting is that too many people get to. Just like the problem with America is all the people here: Truman really should have been nicer to Stalin. "Sovereign immunity” and “divine right of kings” sounds pretty good right now. Don’t worry about the votes. He’s got the votes.

Self-Awareness Is Hard!

And a perfect example of why I consider the original sin to be selfishness. Or the error of seeing everyone else as just not-you (rather than other).

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Final Judgments Are Final

I just think that point needs to be restated, at least for awhile.

Still Unclear About The Process

That’s literally as much as I’d found out this morning, which set up this afternoon: And then the shit really hit the reality fan. Which meant the lower court could remove the administrative stay as early as tomorrow. So it needed to happen sooner rather than later.

And then:
 πŸ›€️ 

A little helpful context from 
Riding on a railroad πŸ›€️ 

Why Jared Kushner Is Held In Such High Regard