Yeah, Except I think "October" Comes In The Preceding Spring Now

Saudi Arabia's oil price hike is MBS' October surprise against the Democratic party, experts tell me.

"MBS wants to make a Carter out of Biden with OPEC’s October surprise, knowing that high gas prices and inflation influence domestic U.S. politics.”https://t.co/yvdR2kIiXK

— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) October 11, 2022

Most of the punditry seems to assume (rightly, IMHO) that political attitudes now are "baked in," and don't really change that much just before November. For example:

Cotton never mentions allegations against Walker, only “all the lies they tell” on TV ads. “Herschel Walker will be a champion in the United States Senate.”

— Patricia Murphy (@MurphyAJC) October 11, 2022

No one seems to think the scandals surrounding Herschel Walker are really affecting his election chances. If he loses, pundits will say the scandals did him in (rather than his blank unfitness for office? Well, yeah, there's Sen. Tuberville in neighboring Alabama, isn't there?). Does anyone really think of all these scandals as an "October Surprise," though? The torpedo below the waterline that sinks a candidate at the last moment? Even Trump's "ET" tape didn't do that. Because Trump was coated in Teflon? Or because the idea of voting for Trump was already baked into the people who did vote for Trump? Besides, Biden is not blinking:

Breaking News: President Biden will "re-evaluate" the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia after it worked with Russia to cut oil production, an official said. He signaled openness to retaliatory measures proposed in Congress, like a halt to arms sales. https://t.co/fNJcuB4dNe

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 11, 2022

There are reports his approval rating has soared recently. Does that give him "coat-tails"? There are also reports Democratic enthusiasm is high, that the Kansas abortion vote was not a fluke but a harbinger. If so, and if Biden's approval rating matters, things like this can only help him:

> https://t.co/ccbK8PA6ZS

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 11, 2022

If gas goes up by $.30 a gallon before November, will voters suddenly turn against Biden? Maybe, but by then they may have already voted. And are people really resting their vote on gas prices and how much they like, or despair, of Biden? At the edges, I'm sure (I'm looking at you, Twitter). But in the second largest state in the country I will be looking at a ballot with 28 offices to vote for, some of them in multiples (judges in various courts/districts). I don't see Joe Biden on that ballot, or gas prices. I wonder just how many people really will in two weeks time, when early voting starts? Or will something like this be more important?

NEWS: Biden admin releases long-anticipated rule making it more likely for millions of workers to be classified as employees. Could deal a blow to gig companies' business model. https://t.co/NsEARkIhhv

— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) October 11, 2022

Kinda depends on voter turnout, doesn't it? The thing Republicans fear the most, and most openly.

I know Dobbs happened in the summer, and gas prices rising will happen in October; but I think Dobbs is still the motivating factor, despite not being in the headlines anymore, that gas prices just won't be this late in the game.  And what if Biden gets people to "rally 'round the flag!" by publicly telling Saudi Arabia "don't fuck with us!"? After all, the kingdom is siding with Russia, which is not exactly a most favored nation in the public mind right now.

The surprise is likely to be there is no surprise.