Thursday, October 04, 2018

Reply Still Hazy--Ask Again In November

If Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed by Friday, or even early next week, whither the outrage in the GOP base that is supposedly driving their "enthusiasm"?  If they win, what do they care what happens in November?  Are they really going to turn out to defeat the specter of a Supreme Court Justice being impeached (as some Dems have promised to do) in 200 years?  By Hallowe'en will they even know who Brett Kavanaugh is?

Besides, the GOP "base" is "awakened"?  The GOP base won in 2016 because the Democratic base (and the rest of its voters) weren't inspired enough by Clinton to turn out, and were convinced Trump couldn't win, so why bother, let somebody else do it.  The GOP base is small and shrinking, and if they all "get woke," will it really be enough to swamp the votes of outraged Democrats?  It's possible, especially in some very local races; but is it likely?  If that's what Ted Cruz is counting on (and what else could he be counting on at this point), it's a pretty weak reed to lean on.  Democrats in Texas have raised $6 million dollars simply to fund a GOTV effort, which is starting now (early voting starts the last week of October here).  If that works, what effect will it have?  Likely not the one predicted by the last 30 years of voting history in Texas.

And is this the GOP base?

Or this?
How many people see Brett Kavanaugh, either on the news or on SNL (a/k/a Matt Damon) and have a positive response to this scion of privilege and poster-boy for meritocracy?  How many people want to vote for Brett, especially if he's confirmed this week?  There are probably more who aren't impressed with him than who are, and those who are respond to Trump, not to Kavanaugh, and once Kavanaugh is out of the news Trump will move on to a new issue; like his father's tax returns and the cheating that made him rich (although not as rich as he claims to be).  Which will probably be a more influential issue in November, whether Kavanaugh is confirmed or rejected.

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