Saturday, October 27, 2018

Something Happenin' Here

I heard a program on NPR yesterday that did its best to skirt the issue that 10 million people have already voted in the midterm election. We are on course, one expert asserted, to exceed voter turnout for midterms going back to 1966, and possibly for Presidential elections going back to 1914 (he thought an expectation of 50% turnout not unreasonable, which would set a record all on its own).  The elephant in the room was not speculation (however well informed) but the facts that Donald Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, and has had a disapproval rating 10 points higher than his approval rating for nearly his entire term. The Trump base, in other words, is a distinct numerical minority. Even if it is motivated to vote, it will be swamped by the rising tide of the majority. And this was the heart of the expert's argument: polling models of "likely voters" are already being proven out of date by voter turnout.

If that Trump supporter in the video above is in the majority, the country is done for. If two years of Trump has led either to more complacency or greater support for the minority President, our country is done for.  Record voter turnout does not point to the success of Donald Trump in the face of all the polling on his approval.

There is something going on, and it's not the triumph of racism and the Sayocs of our baser nature.

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