Monday, April 03, 2023

When Two Disparate Minds Think Alike

On the subject of Trump, I often agree with George. And the downside of that to the rest of us is? Trump is just carving out a smaller and smaller segment of the electorate, who will probably get him through the primaries, but no further. I'll go further: The data referred to there is meaningless in late 2024. Trump v. Biden v. Person to be named later depends heavily on how you fill that slot, and what happens to Trump in the meantime.  Trump is already disliked by a majority of the electorate.  Indictments and criminal trials (and even Jean Carroll's civil suit) are not going to broaden his appeal.  Using January 6th as a campaign prop makes it even worse.  And then, if you put in Joe Deputy Dawg Lieberman (a No Labels proponent) or Grandpa Oatmeal Joe Manchin, enthusiasm plummets even lower, and Biden walks in. Never forget the advantage of incumbency.  Even Trump did better in 2020 than he deserved to, just because of the conservative (small 'c') tendency to keep the devil you know for four more years.  Arguably that's how Trump won in 2016:  he was the devil we didn't know, and Hillary, who we did, just seemed enough worse to let Trump squeak by.

Yup; not surprising, either. Just wait for the trials to start, though. Or, as Asha says, just the unsealing of the indictment. If this is much more a business records case than a "paid a porn star to keep mum about a one-night stand" case, the analysis shifts dramatically. Trump argues NDA's are commong for rich guys like him. But business fraud is common for DA's like Bragg. (Although I am curious: how do they get to 102% in such matters? Where's the overlap?)

And I could do entire posts out of Schooley's tweets alone:
Trump the Cat. People like cats, right? But do you want to see them seated at the Resolute Desk? Aren't they notoriously disinterested in everyone but themselves? I'll be repeating myself for months, so get used to it, but: NOT A LEGAL DEFENSE! Law of diminishing returns, bay-bee! I think they're all just rats in a trap, or people in a round room looking desperately for the corner they've been told to sit in.

BREAKING NEWS AS IT'S BROKEN!

Trump fails completely to understand the concept of a criminal investigation or of the 5th Amendment.  Because I'll be really surprised if the prosecution can't use this interview in the trial.

Meanwhile, on Arraignment Eve:
🥱

In A Round Room, Looking For That Corner

This is not the exit. This is Gym Jordan telling Maria Bartiromo "Everything is on the table" when she asks if he's going to subpoeana Alvin Bragg.  Jordan knows he's not going to do any such thing.  DeSantis knows he's screwed.

He's outsourcing the problem to person or persons unknown to do whatever handwaving solution he's trying to suggest is possible.  He's asking the "Chief Inspector General of the State of Florida" in "consultation with Florida law enforcement" (and who are they, pray tell?) to decide whether this agreement violates Florida civil or criminal law (hint: it doesn't) and to look at what they all did to pull this off (hint again: it's public record) and how they got away with it (hint the third time: because you, Governor, weren't paying attention).

He doesn't ask for an investigation into the ethics of this (which are?  Lawyers have actually written rules of ethics, some of which are enforceable with sanctions up to and including disbarment.  But those are actual rules, not just handwaving about "ethics."  Got any of those to apply to the former Reedy Creek Board, governor?  I didn't think so) as a catchall.  He wants to say somethin' bad was done and he blames Disney for it; but that's about all he'll be able to do.  Can the Florida AG bring a civil action on behalf of the state against Disney (the board has been dissolved and replaced, you can't sue them anymore.  Legally they're a non-entity)?  I doubt it.  Can anyone sue Disney for this?  DeSantis makes claims that sound like grounds to argue against enforcing the contract he doesn't like:

"In addition, based on initial observations of counsel, the RCID board's actions appear to suffer from serious legal infirmities, including, among other things, inadequate notice, lack of consideration, improper delegation of authority, and ethical violations, such as conflicts of interest and self-dealing."

But here's the problem:  who gets to bring that suit?  According to legal authorities on Florida law, only the residents of the district can.  And they are all Disney employees.  If the state doesn't have standing, there's noting DeSantis can do.  And the state of play before his precious law became law, means he doesn't have standing now.  (If you're wondering: no, the law can't be ex post facto.  It can't alter conditions that existed before the law took effect.)

Is there criminal liability?  That would truly be a "political persecution."  Besides, you can't put Disney in jail.

Wrap it up, Governor.  You lost.  You know it.  This letter is full of vague and glittering generalities for consumption by the rubes while we all know you got handed your ass because you weren't watching your backside while Disney was doing public business right in front of you.  But you refused to look.

I Exploit Twitter

I don't use Twitter. So this "blue check mark" stuff means less than nothing to me. The jokes about it on Twitter, on the other hand: Mostly, that allows me to post this: I actually had a book on the making of "2001." It was published in '69 or '70. Pretty much started that genre. Wish I still had it, now. To make up for it, I gotta go read that thread. I was 13 when "2001" came out. I had no idea who Stanley Kubrick was, but it was cutting edge cinema sci-fi, so I had to see it. Three times, at least. I had a friend who bought some of the Revell plastic models of the craft in the show and we tried to film our own scenes. It didn't work nearly as well. Still one of my top 10 favorite movies (most of which are Kubrick movies. I'm not a wide-ranging conoisseur of such things.)

I got to see it again a few years ago, in a movie theater (saw it at least once at a drive in, back in the day).  Still worth going to a theater to see, if you ever can.

In The Space Of Holy Week

I’m not interested in The Atlantic article, I’m interested in The New Yorker article. It’s a slighting (well, what would you expect from a general interest magazine?) but still somewhat worthwhile examination of cults* that includes this curious and misunderstanding observation:
Whether or not one shares Kapur’s admiration for the spiritual certainties of his forefathers and mothers, it seems possible that Auroville prospered in spite of, rather than because of, these certainties—that what in the end saved the community from cultic madness and eventual implosion was precisely not faith, not the Mother’s totalist vision, but pluralism, tolerance, and the dull “compromises and appeasements” of civic life.

The "dull 'compromises and appeasements' of civic life" is precisely what church membership is about.  And it's probably the root cause of churches foundering now:  old people who are tired of making compromises and appeasements (believe me, I understand that better and better now.  I've never liked crowds, but more and more my inner dialogue is about why people won't just GET THE FUCK OUTTA MY WAY! Old age is like drinking:  it lowers your inhibitions, which, it seems, take energy to maintain.  In old age you care less about the consequences, because you've been through most of them already.) v. young people and "new" people (i.e., strangers) with whom the old have to compromise and appease.  And the latter just don't want to do that anymore.

It's also true, from what I've read from monks, of monastic life.  Cloistered monks live in a voluntary community you join by long application.  You live with the community; take vows; and agree, freely and willingly, to abide by the rules.  If you can't, or no longer want to, you get to leave.  The focus is on seeking the presence of the living God, not on following the dictates of the person in charge.  The article points out the problems with the term "cult," but surely one marker of a cult is the domination of the individual will by a leader.  Churches don't dominate individuals; not even the most moss bound fundamentalist churches.  They may demand fealty to a strict set of beliefs and behaviors, but most people even among "true believers" find ways to skirt the rules they don't really want to abide by.  Where I grew up, Southern Baptists dominated the culture and pridefully identified fellow Baptists in the streets (although adherents to one pastor at one church made you almost a heretic among the adherents of the other pastor at the other church).  But the joke was Southern Baptists greeted each other in public everywhere except at the liqour store.  And how do you keep a Baptist from drinking all your beer while you're fishing?  Bring another Baptist along.  And so on.  No, Southern Baptists were never a "cult," but there are easy distinctions between religious believers and people who think the leader of the group must have sex with all the women, or even engage them in BSDM, because it's the will of God or somehow for their salvation.

Which is what the article is about.  There's a very wide gap, in other words, between members of a group cut off from the world, and members of a group of religious believers.  Even among those in the latter who are monastics. (Though I had a Southern Baptist friend swear to me that Catholic priests impregnated the nuns and the aborted fetuses were buried behind convent walls to hide the truth.  This was long before we knew how many Catholic priests were diddling young boys, which truth is actually worse than that baseless slander.)

Pluralism and tolerance test the bonds of churches now.  The Methodists are losing congregations which refuse to reject LGBTQ+ persons as unfit for ministry.  Again, the dividing line (as it was portrayed to be in my youth) is between young and old.  I had to learn to accept people as fully human despite their skin color or sexual preference (more shame on me).  My daughter takes it as a matter of course.  She also doesn't attend church.  Well, she grew up in the parsonage.  She's seen the "pluralism and tolerance" of human beings in the pews at first hand.  I don't think it's a lot better than in the editorial offices of The New Yorker, to be honest.  But the people there are bound by an interest in earning money.  The people in religious settings are supposed to be bound by something else.

But that "something else" is never pure, is it?  That's the stone we try to break everything on: purity.  But there are no unalloyed choices, no decisions without some dross not purified out of them.  It seems to me what the cult members (bad term, but easy shorthand) described in the article are seeking is simplicity.  Easy answers to hard questions, simple guidance to life's complex situations.

As I say, the scholarship in this article is not strong:

Perhaps one way to attack our intellectual hubris on this matter is to remind ourselves that we all hold some beliefs for which there is no compelling evidence. The convictions that Jesus was the son of God and that “everything happens for a reason” are older and more widespread than the belief in Amy Carlson’s privileged access to the fifth dimension, but neither is, ultimately, more rational. In recent decades, scholars have grown increasingly adamant that none of our beliefs, rational or otherwise, have much to do with logical reasoning. “People do not deploy the powerful human intellect to dispassionately analyze the world,” William J. Bernstein writes, in “The Delusions of Crowds” (Atlantic Monthly). Instead, they “rationalize how the facts conform to their emotionally derived preconceptions.”

Atlantic Monthly?  Really? And the idea that "human intellect" is capable of "dispassionately" analyzing the world?  Pray, tell, from what point in space and time does one stand outside of space and time in order to analyze it both dispassionately and (what I think it actually meant by "dispassionately" in that sentence) disinterestedly?  Did Bernstein miss all of Western thought since the 19th century?  Completely?  And if you "dispassionately analyze the world," don't you end up with Robert McNamara championing the Vietnam War to LBJ?  Because that's pretty much what history records, and even McNamara owned up to that mistake.

These things that pass for knowledge I don't understand.

The truth is we all make assumptions, or take things on trust (faith).  Geometry starts with postulates.  Descartes did, too, with his cogito.  It's not a failure of human thinking to do so:  it's a necessary beginning.  Ray Bradbury wrote a story about extreme solipsism and skepticism, where a man convinced himself nothing existed because nothing could be proven ultimately to be real.  He ended up walking out of a spaceship into open space.  Hume tried to reduce all human knowledge to sensory perceptions and then distinquished between synthetic and analytical statements.  One category was fairly pointless information ("this stone is heavy") and the other were unprovable by any appeal to reason and therefore false ("that painting is beautiful").  Kant took on Hume in order to restore both reason and philosophical thinking to their rightful place, but nobody really took Hume seriously (except Bradbury, in that story; and it didn't end well.) Wittgenstein opened his Tractatus with the statement "The world is the case."  Is that the same "world" Bernstein is referring to?  C'mon; if you're gonna run with the big dogs, you gotta bring something better than this.  Otherwise, get back on the porch and go back to sleep.

I think we can safely use the term "cult" to refer to a group slavishly devoted to a leader and a set of expectations that can never be fulfilled.  The article cites Q-Anon.  JFK, Jr. is not going to return, alive, to Dealey Plaza, having never died; nor is his father.  The "storm" is never going to come and sweep away the international cabal of pedophiles and restore Donald Trump to the Presidency for Life.  Trump is not going to trample on his enemies and drive them before him while enjoying the lamentations of their women (okay, I'm stealing from "Conan," but it fits, right?).  The example of Auroville (an actual place founded in southern India in 1968, and still in existence) is an interesting inapt one:  it started as a "prophetic community," not in the Hebraic sense but in the sense of a leader who had a truth to teach that no one else was privy to.  Not unlike some of the communities in 19th century America which likewise expected a revelation that would set them all apart from the rabble and the rest of the world.  Auroville persisted, says the article, in large part because it never was an authoritarian community run by a leader who, like all mortals, eventually died.  Her magical thinking (in Joan Didion's terms) attracted people who were shocked when she actually died, but they decided some of her teachings were actually worthwhile.  Not unlike present day Norway: "(Norway has figured out how to be “somewhat egalitarian” without the benefit of a guru’s numinous wisdom.)"  It's probably true that 'numinous wisdom' is not the way to Paradise, either.

Christianity certainly doesn't teach it to be so.  Oh, plenty of sects and denominations insist their "way" is "The Way." I still remember "One Way" in the '70's, a particularly obnoxious fundamentalist based evangelical outreach based on a few misplaced verses from the Gospel of John ("I am the way, the truth, and the life.  No man comes to the Father except by me.").  It's telling you don't find that sentiment in the synoptics, and even that John undercuts it with the story of the SyroPhoenician woman (the fundies don't like to mix those two, even though they're in the same gospel).  But historically Christianity has not taught 'numinous wisdom' as a prerequisite to either salvation or even baptism (the sacrament that is the mark of church membership, or at least membership in the cloud of witnesses).  "Religion," as Derrida noted, looking to the example of mystery cults (of which Christianity was believed to be one, in the beginning, in some circles), "is responsibility, or it is nothing at all."  But the hallmark of an authoritarian cult, even one like Q-Anon, is the lack of responsibility by the adherents.  They are called only to accept that the leader tells them, and to act on it without complaint or inhibition; the opposite of responsibility.  Jesus told his followers to love one another (a very hard thing to do.  Have you met those people?).  Authoritarian cults tell their followers to "believe" and to wait for something to happen that will justify their belief.  True, Christianity has had waves of expectations in a millennial apocalypse, or a return that will end time and history; but that's not the primary teaching of any major Christian denomination that I know of.  And, IMHTheologicalO, the better teachings are about the kingdom here and now, and doing for the least of these.

Yesterday was Palm/Passion Sunday.  We squeezed them together after centuries of one following the other, because nobody wants to hear about the Passion anymore.  They want to go straight from the exultation of Palm Sunday to the glory of Easter morning.  Skip the "Last Supper" on Maundy Thursday (too depressing, and somebody might try to wash my feet!).  Good Friday and death?  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?  A vigil on Holy Saturday?  WHO HAS THE TIME?  No, I'm asking; does anybody have a watch?  C'mon Easter!  Show me a good time!  But "religion is responsibility, or it is nothing at all."  And in that vein, I end this diatribe against an article you haven't read, and point you to the words of Walter Brueggemann, and the exegesis of those words by Thought Criminal.  There are worse ways to spend your time.

Especially since, after all this time, I've pretty much abandoned my seasonal liturgical commentaries.


*Well, it seemed somewhat worthwhile when I started this post.  As is often the case, things change.

History As Farce And Rhyme

Sunday, April 02, 2023

FINALLY!!!

Sorry to shout, but this is exactly right:
"You know, there is this myth around him that he has eluded the law time in time again, but the reality is that he's never had this kind of legal artillery lined up on his doorstep," said O'Brien. "I think, of course, he is afraid of it as any person would be who is facing the possibility of being perp-walked in front of the country. And I think he is most likely going to go to the streets in this. So, when he says he will have a press conference and he will make an announcement after he is arraigned, I would look for any dog whistles, as he's already done. He will use racial and racist dog whistles, but I think the real concern here is the extent to which he and the people around him, and some members of his own party, used this to foment violence just like he did on Jan 6th. I think he is cornered. I think when he has exhausted all of these legal remedies and legal strategies to stave this off, the default will be to go to the streets, go to his supporters, and encourage violence."
No, not the risk of violence. I think that’s overblown; they almost want it to happen so they can bask in the fulfillment of their predictions. But the fact is, Trump has faced serious governmental legal challenge exactly once. And he’s never faced a criminal trial.

Sunday Fun 🤩 Legal News

Not a legal defense. But it is likely to get him in trouble with the judge. Word is Trump wants to hold a press conference after the arraignment. That probably won’t sit well with the court, either. Also not a legal defense. And he can’t complain about pre-trial publicity, since he’s the one seeking it. Depends, of course, on what Bragg’s case is. Still have to wait and see. He will perpetually be his own worst enemy. Perpetually. Self-owned.
If you’ve seen any of Trump’s recent rants, you know that they are unhinged and dangerous. If he keeps it up, he might end up with a gag order or even pretrial detention. 
In other words, Trump does not appear to be preparing a normal defense, which is no surprise. Instead, his aim seems to be to create as much chaos as possible with the goal of tearing the country apart.
You had me until the insane, internet level, hyperbole. Trump doesn’t aim to tear the country apart. He can’t think that big (and this isn’t a comic book story).  He just thinks throwing tantrums is a winning strategy. Tell me again how many cases he’s won since November,  2020. Or how he’s actually torn the country apart since then. Oh I know tout le internet says he’s going to. When is that finally going to happen?

There is a good analysis here of the racism inherent in criminal justice since the 13th Amendment (CRT!  I’ve been infected with…thought!) the buckshot use of the “paranoid style in American politics” (haven’t heard about that in a while!).
Those embracing the paranoid style of politics believe that unseen satanic forces are trying to destroy something larger in which they belong. According to Hofstadter, the “something larger” to which they belong is generally phrased as the American way of life. They feel dispossessed and that America has been largely taken away from them and their kind. 
They are “determined to repossess it and prevent the final act of subversion.” They, therefore, adopt extreme measures. They will stop at nothing to prevent what they see as an impending calamity.
Yeah, that sounds familiar.
As we are entering the indictment phase, which will move Trump back into the spotlight, the more reactionary Republican leaders will rally around Trump because they are reactionaries, and they see the indictment as another salvo in a cultural war that is eroding their own power. 
Meanwhile, as Trump finds himself adjusting to the reality of being a criminal defendant, he will try to bait his critics into helping him attack the “system” that he wants to dismantle. 
His goal will be to create chaos, keep people spinning, and get everyone fighting. The solution is not to take the bait.
Sound advice; but the danger is badly overstated. At the beginning of this essay we find this:
His method is to (1) Fire up his supporters and (2) bait his critics into helping him destroy rule of law.
Well, yes, that’s what Trump wants to do. But that second goal is as far beyond Trump’s reach as it is beyond his harshest critics. Indeed, it’s the rule of law he’s up against now, and it doesn’t give a wet snap for his attacks, or for the impatience of his critics. Nor will the impatience of a handful of internet cranks (a tiny subset of a tiny subset of the populace) toss the rule of law from its place.

It won’t get Trump anywhere against it, either.
The threat is real. Trump is dangerous. Right-wing extremists are dangerous. However, the way to combat authoritarianism is not with more authoritarianism.
The threat is only as real as a majority of the people take Trump seriously. And they have taken him seriously enough to turn him out of office and to not protest en masse (the anti-war movement or civil rights movement of the ‘60’s; BLM and the George Floyd protests are counter-examples). There probably won’t even be a sizable crowd in Manhattan on Tuesday. The majority of Americans are either happy with Trump’s predicament, or indifferent to it. There aren’t enough angry people on the internet to spring Trump from jail, or to tear the rule of law and put him there instanter.

Who's Stuck?

😁 😂 🍿 🤔 🥤 👏🏻 I look forward to a trial judge ordering Trump to do just that. Or, alternatively, go to jail until the trial, where they take that kind of stuff away from you. 👍  😼

Sunday Night Elmo Watch

No one has any idea why the delay.... Or maybe this is why: Although this seems more likely: "Getting"? I wonder if King James has lost his? And nope, no liability here: Also: (UN)FAIR AND (IM)BALANCED! Sounds like he's taking his own advice.

Sunday Document Dump

We start with Peter Strzok's guest link to the WaPo article. Enjoy (if it still works).  Then we jump to David Cay Johnston for a little "state of mind" insight:

"Donald has no history of that will allow him to process what's going on," said David Cay Johnston. "He has gotten away with crimes and wrongdoing, everything from plying 12, 13, and 14-year-old children to gamble in his casinos, by giving them liquor and limousines and rooms in his, and being involved up to his eyeballs with a major international cocaine trafficker for which he did major favors — to getting away with lying under oath in some proceedings. So, here, Donald is very aware that he is at risk. He simply doesn't know how to process that. So, he is scared you are seeing his fear and his growing fear in the things he's posting to Truth Social and the comments he's making in public."
And then back to the WaPo article:
Trump has been very public about his "right" to take documents under the PRA (he's wrong) and many have said he sees them as "souvenirs" or, more darkly, valuable material on some black market.  As Mr. Johnston lays out, Trump knows alot about black markets.

And if the possibility of 4 indictments isn't enough to make you want to keep Trump out from behind the Presidential podium again, consider this new information about what he did when he was there:
emptywheel has a bit more: There's a reason Jordan didn't tell Bartiromo this morning that he was going to subpoena Bragg (he just said "Everything's on the table.").  It's because he knows even if he can get the subpoena issued and the DOJ to try to enforce it, the Courts will [s]quash it like a cockroach.  This footnote is one more reason why; and why political girl was so right about Jordan and the GOP. This is what the press likes to call "heating up." Yeah; this is bad. And Trump will literally never know what it him. A reminder: there are a lot of people in prison who say they are innocent. Trump will be in good company. The major question will be: does he keep his Secret Service protection? Questions, questions, questions....

The Calls Are Coming From Inside The House (of Representatives)

The extra "g" is for emphasis. Because it's really, really rigged! Even the blunt object knows you don't badmouth the judge. So, that's something? The funny thing is, I knew Mike in elementary school. I wonder, as he grew up in the same town I did if he thought the anti-war protestors and civil rights marchers were attacking the country from within? I kind of expect he did, as most of the people my age reflected their parents' attitudes, and felt some semblance of that about the times.

If Pence had caved to Donald Trump’s demands and refused to count the electoral votes, Judge Luttig told the House January 6th Committee last summer, the nation “would immediately have been plunged into what would have been tantamount to a revolution within a paralyzing constitutional crisis.”

Makes me wonder how he feels about the election of 1876 and the Hayes-Tilden crisis.  (In the article he derides Trump for breaking "the sacred trust" of the American people towards constitutional office holders.  I must admit "sacred trust" gives me the willies, since it's not exactly a legal argument (Luttig is constantly praised as a jurist, probably rightly so), and I hesitate to use the term "sacred" so freely, if at all.  Permit me to break for an example:


The nuns object to the teachings of the Church because:

“we will remain oppressors until we — as vowed Catholic religious — acknowledge the existence of LGBTQ+ people in our own congregations. We seek to cultivate a faith community where all, especially our transgender, nonbinary and gender-expansive siblings, experience a deep belonging.”

As Sister Barbara Battista explained:

The nuns were explicit about their disagreement with legislators and church leadership.“Battista noted that many of the bills working their way through state legislatures revolve around the health care needs of trans people, an issue that hits home for her as a licensed physician’s assistant in Indiana.

"She described her work as “participating in the healing ministry of Jesus,” rooted, she said, in a “sacred trust” between patients and providers.“ But Catholic leaders and government officials, she argued, have tried to “insert themselves into the private, very personal and intimate conversations and decisions made between patients and the health care provider.

My sympathies are with the women "participating in the healing ministry of Jesus" among the people, far more than it is with the men far, far away from such human beings, concerned with what is kept "sacred."  Seems to me Jesus had a lot to say about that, too.
Won't keep the internet from trying. See? In short: tell me you don't know how the legal system works, without telling me you don't know how the legal system works.

Fortunately, the legal system is unaffected by such inane opinion pieces.  That's why Trump has lost every effort he's taken to court since November, 2020.

Speaking of which, just get on Twitter if you have to, and watch this.  You can thank me later:

The Mac 'N' Cheese For Old White Men Candidate

I saw Joe Manchin on MTP this morning. 

Let's start there.

He all but announced his desire to be the "No Labels" candidate.  And I agree, NL is a Trump superpac.  But its model for success is Bush v Clinton v Perot.  Let me explain why this is not 1992 redux.

Clinton was the governor from Arkansas who was supposed to be buried by "60 Minutes" (yeah, back when they did real journalism) for his inability to keep his pants zipped (that part was always true.  Whitewater was a training course for the modern day GOP.  Try to keep up, punks!).  It didn't destroy him (much as "Grab 'em by the pussy!" didn't destroy Trump decades later, but for vastly different reasons), and he labeled himself "The Comeback Kid."

Bush had Lee Atwater in '88, but not (IIRC) in '92.  He floundered, in other words.  He'd broken his "No new taxes" pledge from '88, and voters remembered.  Perot fired up voters who saw a "third way," but he floundered badly, too. In fact, he proved himself an unreliable crackpot, dropping out of the race, but unable to get off the ballots in the states where he was on the ballot (not all 50).  Pundits still argue that Perot stole votes from Bush, but it's just as likely voters for Perot would have stayed home rather than vote for Bush, so there's literally no way to prove the claim (or disprove it).  And Clinton was a better politician than he was then given credit for (and all that rubbed off on Hillary was Bill's unfavorables).  He certainly had more charisma than any politician in the 20th century since FDR.

Joe Manchin this morning on MTP displayed all the charisma of a grandfather at Cracker Barrel about to dig into the macaroni and cheese.

Ross Perot came blazing out of the blue (a la Clinton), promising to "get under the hood" (no, I'm quoting, not exaggerating) and "fix" what was wrong with America!  The ideal 3rd party candidate, in other words.  The former governor of North Carolina (whose name escapes me; no loss) was on the MTP panel beating the "No Labels" drum, claiming "we've never seen numbers like this before!" and if a 3rd party candidate ran for POTUS, he/she would in (actually I think he just said "he").  A former Obama campaign staffer (a high up), countered that we see these numbers two years into every Administration as the pundits obsess over the next election.  And once you put actual people in the "would you vote for anybody but the major party presumptives?", the enthusiasm drops off rapidly.

Joe Manchin told Chuck Todd he just wants to do what's right, and he's "worried" about the deficit and inflation.  Wow.  Where do I sign up? Oh, never mind, I forgot what I was signing up for.  What was he saying?

People vote for people, not ideas or "replacements" or "none of the above."  I suppose if we had ranked choice voting with that last choice as an option we could get a third-party candidate into office, and Congress could dissolve into the Israeli parliament, with numerous small parties vying for control and a POTUS of no Congressional party in the White House.  What could go wrong?

But that's not gonna happen; and Joe Manchin is gonna be lucky to win West Virginia again, which is why he wants the Presidential race to be his swan song.  But the thing about the swan song is that, according to the myth, the swan sings it immediately before dying.  Apt metaphor, in this case.
That is, of course, absolutely correct.  Which is why "No Labels" is a spoiler and a Trump superpac.  But Trump is as reviled today as Hillary Clinton ever was.  Trump v Biden redux will be Nixon v McGovern:  it'll be a rout.  If Joe Manchin runs, he'll barely be noticed.  Ross Perot was a wild man who made wild claims (sound familiar?  Everything old is new again.), who was known mostly for being rich (he could buy and sell Trump from his pocket change.  Unlike Trump, Perot really was a billionaire.).  Again, sound familiar?  And he rallied people to his cause who thought a savior would at last run the world as they saw fit, and "fix" everything (or "drain the swamp").  Except, of course, the world doesn't work like that.

And Joe Manchin is not gonna out-grandpa Joe Biden, or convince any independent Biden voters (or even Democrats) that Manchin will do what Biden can't.  Manchin was still talking about inflation being caused by federal budget deficits, an idea Paul Volcker shot through the heart and burned on a funeral pyre under Reagan when he broke inflation with high interest rates (what the Fed does for inflation to this day).  Yes, Republicans still talked about deficits and inflation as cause and effect (unless they were in office!), but nobody's really buying that snake oil anymore.  And besides, Manchin is a Democrat!  From West Virginia!  With the appeal of somebody's grandfather you really don't know well and aren't all that anxious to sit at Thanksgiving dinner with.

There is no path to 270 for a third party candidate.  There's also no path to a spoiler in Biden v Trump.  Too many people despise Trump to sit home or show up and pull the lever for Manchin.  They still remember what their indifference did to the country for four years.  And Trump's indictments/criminal trials are going to drive his numbers down even further, and persuade more people to vote to be sure he can't win.

"Put money in your purse."

Talking Off The Top Of Your Head

You’ll be bald and nothing to show for it.

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals has ruled twice recently that the Texas AG has NO criminal jurisdiction or authority. Paxton couldn’t start a criminal investigation of Biden if he wanted to.

Well, that, and Biden has never lived here.

(Paxton does have several civil cases against Biden; that he can do. But they’re all against the office. Nothing personal.)

When It’s Not All About The Donald…

...it’s all about the Dersh.

Actions And Consequences

Behold the lawyer who has to make his case in court, not to a bunch of Trump supporters or legal pundits.
“The former president, your client, was lashing out against him," Bash said. "And the former president said that the judge hates him and was handpicked by the DA for this case for that reason. Are you going to ask for a different judge?" 
"We are going to take the indictment, evaluate all our legal options, and pursue everyone most vigorously," Tacopina stated. "This is a case of political persecution." 
"But let's talk about the judge," Bash pressed. "Will you ask for a different judge?" "You know, I have no issue with this judge whatsoever," the attorney replied. "Your client does," Bash observed. 
"Well, my client has a right to have an issue with everything," Tacopina snapped. "He's been politically persecuted. Make no mistake about that, Dana." 
"So you don't believe this judge is biased?" Bash asked. 
"I have no reason to believe this judge is biased," the attorney stated. "I've not been before him on this matter. So we have to let this process play out."
Now he’s going to court. Actions have serious consequences there.

Any Time, Any Place

Just a reminder: Trump's first trial is in April. Apparently all his “delaying tactics” couldn’t delay the trial indefinitely. And in my experience civil trials are much easier to delay than criminal ones. Something about the 6th amendment and “speedy trials”…

And considering the disaster that Trump’s deposition was (Ms. Carroll is “not his type,” but he mistook her for Marla Maples in a picture of her from the time of the alleged rape. I still find that hilarious.), that case is going to come down to the jury charge (what the judge tells the jury the law in this case is). Technical stuff, in other words. On the facts, it’s Trump’s word against hers, and he’ll destroy his own credibility before cross-examination,

His biggest protection in the criminal trials is the 5th amendment. It won’t protect him in April.

Any time, any place.

DEFUND THE POLICE!!!!! ARM SCHOOL CHILDREN!!!!!!

RUN, DEMOCRATS, RUN! And the other topic of the week: more armed guards in schools! Also from Texas, more racist xenophobia resurrecting the “Yellow Peril” (and more proof that ideas, especially bad ones, are bulletproof): Commies in your kitchen!  Commies under your bed!  YEAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!!!!! (They’re already winning our Academy Awards, right, Lite Guv?)

Saturday, April 01, 2023

She Draws Eyeballs! 👀

Like shit draws flies. 💩 I wish I’d kept the recent tweet from a reporter enjoying Trump’s indictment, and recalling trying to call Trump what he so obviously was long before all journalists decided they could (sometime around February, 2021): a liar.

“No,” said her editors. “We don’t know his state of mind.”

But you do know the content of his statements. No one can know the internal dialogue of another. But we can assess what they say.

And MTG is a racist, anti-semitic xenophobe who wants to be in Manhattan on Monday for the attention. She’s stalked school shooting survivors and is openly homophonic and transphobic. But she doesn’t use the “N-word” (in public, at least) or publicly say “faggot!” (I guess “crisis actor!” would just be “confrontational”), so she’s fit for polite company. Or at least the TeeVee cameras of what was once the crown jewel of the news organization that was led by Murrow, Cronkite, Reasoner, Wallace, Safer and Bradley.

Still, we don’t know her state of mind, do we?

Maybe we are in decline after all…

So Much Depends…

Kinda depends on which lawyer and which case:
“If they’re doing their job, they’re going to do everything they can to delay, delay, delay, delay. Every single motion they can think of. That’s what they’re going to file.”
Well, sort of. First: can they do their job? The content of the motions matters more than the quantity of them.

Second: the judge handling the case already oversaw The Trump Company fraud case. He knows Trump’s tricks. Some motions are almost required: change of venue, motion to dismiss, challenges to judge and prosecutors.  Even some of those are unusual. The court can deal with them quickly, though, especially those it considers filed in bad faith. (The court is not disposed to presume bad faith, but after so much experience with Trump, bad faith is practically assumed,) Expectations yesterday were that the case would come to trial in a year. Politico thinks it might run into primary season, which is not implausible. The case could take weeks in court; court dockets are crowded. 

And Trump’s facing three more possible indictments. The sheer complications of multiple cases could make scheduling difficult. But not impossible. And trial schedules are not going to yield to the campaign trail.

That’s Trump’s problem.

One thing is clear: the court system cares not a bean about these speculations, which will fill time and print/virtual space until the verdict is rendered. So this could get very tedious. Especially when it’s up to four cases in at least 3 different courts.

so much depends
upon

a red wheel
barrow 

glazed with rain
water

beside the white
chickens

Poetry is a much better pastime.

This Will Never Not Be Funny

To restate: DeSantis’ new board can’t ignore the contract, or try to reverse the vote approving it. That’s breach of contract. They can’t sue (or even counter-sue; that’s really just joining two actions with parties and facts in common. The board can’t counter/sue because…well, wait for it.) because they don’t have standing.

Standing lies with the residents of the district. Who are all Disney employees, and don’t want to sue their employer. The board can’t sue, or counter-sue; or attempt to negate the contract.

The board is hog-tied.

And yes, DeSantis could have seen this coming.
Imagine the quality of information gathering in a DeSantis Presidential administration. Not ready for prime-time? DeSantis is not ready to be governor! 😹

Don’t Threaten Me With A Good Time

Dear Stephen Miller:

Now talk about this:
"[Trump] has advocated for the prosecutions of each of the last four Democratic presidential nominees — every single one since 2004. In two cases, he did it during the campaign, even suggesting they should be ineligible to run. "And that’s to say nothing of the many other political opponents he has suggested should be prosecuted. He even, in some cases, actually agitated for that outcome when he held sway over the Justice Department.” 
.... 
“The “lock her up” chant leveled at Hillary Clinton is the most well-known entry in this long succession. Trump at times merely goaded his 2016 rally audiences to go down that road, but at other times he endorsed it. He said late in the 2016 campaign, 'Hillary Clinton should have been prosecuted and should be in jail,' and he even told Clinton to her face at a debate that if he were president, 'You’d be in jail.' He added at a later debate that 'she shouldn’t be allowed to run.' 
"And Trump didn’t stop calling for prosecutions of top political figures even after a blizzard of accusations rained down upon him in his one-term presidency. 
"By 2020, Trump gave a similar treatment to both his predecessor as president, Barack Obama, and his then-opponent, Joe Biden. 
"A month before the election, Trump tweeted, 'Where are all of the arrests?”' He added: 'BIDEN, OBAMA AND CROOKED HILLARY LED THIS TREASONOUS PLOT!!! BIDEN SHOULDN’T BE ALLOWED TO RUN - GOT CAUGHT!!!' 
“'But these people should be indicted, this was the greatest political crime in the history of our country — and that includes Obama and it includes Biden,' Trump added during an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business Network the next day. 'These are people that spied on my campaign.' 
“Trump even indicated that he had made that case directly to his attorney general, William P. Barr: 'And I say, Bill, we’ve got plenty, you don’t need any more' to indict.”
Please make your answer in the form of complete sentences.

The Nutshell Version 🥜

Because, you know, reasons….

HULK SMASH! 💥

Except, you know, Hulk is a two-dimensional cartoon character and portrayed in movies by a computer generated image. The first time. I still think the law of diminishing returns applies. As it seems to be doing in the MCU.

Meanwhile:
Trump thinks the indictments help him win votes. Because if there’s anything Americans love, it’s a President facing two federal indictments and indictments in two separate states.

Putting It Mildly

 Rep. Maxine Waters said it better:

As a matter of fact, she has a reputation for being outrageous -- someone that is not to be taken seriously, and so she'll just continued with that reputation by going to protest. She could not in any way interfering with justice at this point. Justice is on the move."

All Things To No People

Would anyone attempt this argument if Trump were running for Congress?

Is running for POTUS a magical legal shield, a “King’s ‘X’” that protects you until Election Day? Or even in perpetuity?

And again: we don’t even know what the case is. How do we know it’s political instead of simply legal?

Remember When…?

...having a rally in Waco was a dog whistle to white supremacists only certain people could hear?

Good times, good times… 👍 

Make It Stop!! ✋

First, Bill Barr has zero credibikity. Add to that NO ONE outside of the grand jury knows what’s in the indictment.

And, as emptywheel says, Barr’s as crooked as a dog’s hind leg.

We’re going to be treated to a lot of ill-informed speculation until Tuesday afternoon:
(Until we know what the charges are, who are the crucial witnesses, and why? We don’t yet even know how many charges there are. Accounts differ.)

After which it will turn into ill-informed analysis.

I’ll just wait for the movie to come out. 🍿 

Is Eric Addicted To Painkillers?

Or shoplifting?